Start vs Brann – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Start vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Start host Brann at in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 September 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Start — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Start's home record at : 2W 3D 4L from 9 Eliteserien appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Brann have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Brann's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Start's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Start have won 0, Brann 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2026, ended 1–2 with Brann winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Start trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Brann trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Start 67% and Brann 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Start 61% | Brann 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Start 1.07 xG and Brann 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Start attack 0.753 / defence 1.186 | Brann attack 1.084 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Start's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Start games / 48 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Start 22% | Draw 23% | Brann 55%. Fair-value odds: Start 4.55 | Draw 4.35 | Brann 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Brann (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Start 56% | Brann 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Start vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Start 22% | Draw 23% | Brann 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Start 1.07 / Brann 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Start attack 0.753 / def 1.186 | Brann attack 1.084 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Brann (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Start xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Brann xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Start vs Brann kick off?
Start vs Brann is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 13 September 2026.
What competition is Start vs Brann part of?
Start vs Brann is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Start vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Start a 22% chance of winning, Brann a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Start vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Start and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Start vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Brann?
Record (3 meetings): Start 0W | Draws 2 | Brann 1W.
What form are Start and Brann in?
Start (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Brann (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Start's attack at 0.75x the league average against Brann's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Start's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
22%
4.54
23%
4.33
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Start xG
Total xG
2.90
1.83
Brann xG
4.54
22%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
16%
6.22
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
4%
28.24
19%
5.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Start vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Start and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Start and 1.83 for Brann, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Start vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Start have picked up 0.72 PPG on a 3W 4D 11L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann's form line: 8W 2D 8L from 18 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Start.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Start have posted 1.00 PPG from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L).
On the road, Brann have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Start are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Start have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Brann in 78%.
Last 18 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Start
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Start and Brann in coming into this match?
Start have gone 3W 4D 11L in their last 18 games (0.72 PPG), while Brann have gone 8W 2D 8L in their last 18 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Start at home or Brann away?
Brann's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Start at home: 1.00 PPG; Brann away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Start and Brann runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Start
2
Draws
1
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Brann?
From 3 meetings on record, Start have won 0, Brann have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Start and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Brann 2-1 Start.
Who has won more matches between Start and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Start at 56%, Brann at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Start and 78% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Start have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Start home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Start play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Start's games and 78% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Start vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Start's matches and 78% of Brann's.
Do Start and Brann tend to score early?
Start have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Brann in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.