Rosenborg 1-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 28 June 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Lerkendal Stadion, Rosenborg have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Viking have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Viking's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for Rosenborg, 2.10 for Viking — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Viking in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, Rosenborg are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with Rosenborg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Rosenborg and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 62% and Viking 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 65% | Viking 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.18 xG and Viking 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.844 / defence 0.672 | Viking attack 1.386 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.419. Viking have an above-average attack strength of 1.386 — the away xG of 1.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Rosenborg's defence rating of 0.672 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Rosenborg games / 43 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 33% | Draw 27% | Viking 40%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Viking 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 60% | Viking 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jun 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 33% | Draw 27% | Viking 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Rosenborg 1.18 / Viking 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.844 / def 0.672 | Viking attack 1.386 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Viking (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Viking xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Viking kick off?
Rosenborg vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 June 2025 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Viking?
Rosenborg 1 - 1 Viking.
Where is Rosenborg vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Viking part of?
Rosenborg vs Viking is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 33% chance of winning, Viking a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Rosenborg and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Viking?
Record (6 meetings): Rosenborg 4W | Draws 1 | Viking 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and Viking in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Viking (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rosenborg's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.39x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
33%
3.02
27%
3.71
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.50
1.32
Viking xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
9%
11.32
12%
8.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.32 for Viking, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rosenborg come into this having played 60 games, going 27W 11D 22L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.92 PPG from 60 outings (34W 13D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.92 for Viking. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rosenborg's home form reads 17W 5D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.63 points per game from 30 outings (14W 7D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 2.03 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Viking in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Viking in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 27W 11D 22L in their last 60 games (1.53 PPG), while Viking have gone 34W 13D 13L in their last 60 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Viking away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.87 PPG; Viking away: 1.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 1-5 on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
2
Draws
3
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Viking have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Rosenborg 2-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Viking?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 60%, Viking 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Rosenborg and 60% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rosenborg's games and 57% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Rosenborg's matches and 60% of Viking's.
Do Rosenborg and Viking tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Viking in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg and Viking share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 11, as Rosenborg and Viking drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.18 xG and Viking 1.32 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.84 / defence 0.67 against Viking attack 1.39 / defence 0.87, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 33% | Draw 27% | Viking 40%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 65%, Viking 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.53 PPG, Viking 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.