Rosenborg 1-0 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Stromsgodset travel to Lerkendal Stadion to take on Rosenborg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024, 18:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's home record at Lerkendal Stadion: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stromsgodset — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Rosenborg, 4 for Stromsgodset and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Stromsgodset winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Rosenborg trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Stromsgodset trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 64% versus Stromsgodset 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 68% | Stromsgodset 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.92 xG and Stromsgodset 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.190 / defence 0.842 | Stromsgodset attack 0.776 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.297. Data: 56 Rosenborg games / 56 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 63% | Draw 22% | Stromsgodset 16%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Stromsgodset 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Stromsgodset lead the H2H ledger, but Rosenborg carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Rosenborg 70% | Stromsgodset 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 63% | Draw 22% | Stromsgodset 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 49% | xG Rosenborg 1.92 / Stromsgodset 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.190 / def 0.842 | Stromsgodset attack 0.776 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (63%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Stromsgodset xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Rosenborg 1 - 0 Stromsgodset.
Where is Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset part of?
Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 63% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Rosenborg and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset?
Record (7 meetings): Rosenborg 2W | Draws 1 | Stromsgodset 4W.
What form are Rosenborg and Stromsgodset in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Stromsgodset (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (1.19) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
63%
1.60
22%
4.65
16%
6.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.77
0.85
Stromsgodset xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
6.28
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
15%
6.82
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
2%
42.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.85 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 24W 10D 22L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset's form line: 21W 11D 24L from 56 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-W. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rosenborg on 1.46 PPG, Stromsgodset on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 1.86 PPG from 28 outings (16W 4D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 8W 6D 14L from 28 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.20 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 24W 10D 22L in their last 56 games (1.46 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 21W 11D 24L in their last 56 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Stromsgodset away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.86 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rosenborg have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2025, when Rosenborg won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
1
Draws
4
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Stromsgodset have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Rosenborg 6-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Stromsgodset see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 61%, Stromsgodset 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Rosenborg) and 39% (Stromsgodset).
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Stromsgodset in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 43% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Rosenborg's recent games and 39% of Stromsgodset's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rosenborg and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out Stromsgodset 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Stromsgodset 1-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.92 xG and Stromsgodset 0.85 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rosenborg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Stromsgodset landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.19 / defence 0.84 against Stromsgodset attack 0.78 / defence 1.04, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 63% | Draw 22% | Stromsgodset 16%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 68%, Stromsgodset 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.46 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.