Rosenborg 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Rosenborg at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF encounter.

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Analysis

Sarpsborg 08 FF make the trip to Lerkendal Stadion to face Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

Rosenborg (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Lerkendal Stadion this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form ledger tips toward Rosenborg. A 1.40 PPG lead over Sarpsborg 08 FF (2.50 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 6 meetings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Rosenborg's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2024, ended 1–4 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

Sarpsborg 08 FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 62% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 66% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 71%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.88 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.137 / defence 0.805 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.191 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.268. Data: 58 Rosenborg games / 58 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rosenborg 53% | Draw 22% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 25%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 4.00. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Sarpsborg 08 FF lead the H2H ledger, but Rosenborg carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 60% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 80% BTTS from recent games.

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