ODD Ballklubb 0-3 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Brann travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Skagerak Arena, ODD Ballklubb have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Brann — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. ODD Ballklubb register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Brann in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for ODD Ballklubb, 3 for Brann and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with Brann winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Brann trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 54% versus Brann 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 54% | Brann 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.18 xG and Brann 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.850 / defence 1.225 | Brann attack 1.312 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.238. Brann have an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 ODD Ballklubb games / 56 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 22% | Draw 22% | Brann 56%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 4.55 | Draw 4.55 | Brann 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Brann (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.18 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 60% | Brann 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 22% | Draw 22% | Brann 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.18 / Brann 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.850 / def 1.225 | Brann attack 1.312 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Brann (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Brann xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Brann kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Brann kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Brann?
ODD Ballklubb 0 - 3 Brann.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Brann part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Brann is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 22% chance of winning, Brann a 56% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Brann?
Record (7 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 3W | Draws 1 | Brann 3W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Brann in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Brann (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about ODD Ballklubb vs Brann?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (0.85) and Brann's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
22%
4.48
22%
4.63
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.17
1.99
Brann xG
4.48
22%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
14%
7.32
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
3%
32.76
17%
5.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.99 for Brann, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, ODD Ballklubb have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 15W 16D 25L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann's form line: 34W 11D 11L from 56 games, 2.02 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against ODD Ballklubb.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, ODD Ballklubb have posted 1.36 PPG from 28 outings (10W 8D 10L).
On the road, Brann have gone 14W 7D 7L from 28 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.84 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Brann in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 15W 16D 25L in their last 56 games (1.09 PPG), while Brann have gone 34W 11D 11L in their last 56 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Brann away?
Brann's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.36 PPG; Brann away: 1.75 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Brann in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and Brann runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2024, when Brann won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Brann specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
ODD Ballklubb
1
Draws
4
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Brann?
From 8 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 3, Brann have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 0-3 Brann.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 57%, Brann 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (ODD Ballklubb) and 54% (Brann).
On the defensive side: Brann in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 57% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of ODD Ballklubb's recent games and 54% of Brann's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Brann tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Brann in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Brann run riot with a 0-3 hammering of ODD Ballklubb.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat ODD Ballklubb 0-3 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.18 xG and Brann 1.99 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Brann outscored their 1.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.85 / defence 1.23 against Brann attack 1.31 / defence 0.90, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 22% | Draw 22% | Brann 56%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 54%, Brann 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brann's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brann (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.