Molde 0-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Viking at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Molde vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Viking make the trip to Aker Stadion to face Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 June 2025 at 18:15 UTC.
Current Form
Molde's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Aker Stadion, Molde have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Viking have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Viking have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Molde against 2.10 for Viking. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Molde register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Viking in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Molde 3W, Viking 2W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.6 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2024, ended 0–1 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Molde half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Molde 58% and Viking 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Molde 70% | Viking 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 1.36 xG and Viking 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 0.902 / defence 1.000 | Viking attack 1.488 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.492. Viking have an above-average attack strength of 1.488 — the away xG of 2.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Molde games / 41 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 23% | Draw 20% | Viking 57%. Fair-value odds: Molde 4.35 | Draw 5.00 | Viking 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Viking (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 2.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.58 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Molde 70% | Viking 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Jun 2025, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 23% | Draw 20% | Viking 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 66% | xG Molde 1.36 / Viking 2.22 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 0.902 / def 1.000 | Viking attack 1.488 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.492 • Poisson stance: Viking (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Molde xG
Expected Goals
2.22
Viking xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Viking kick off?
Molde vs Viking kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 1 June 2025 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Viking?
Molde 0 - 1 Viking.
Where is Molde vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Viking part of?
Molde vs Viking is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 23% chance of winning, Viking a 57% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Molde and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Viking?
Record (7 meetings): Molde 3W | Draws 2 | Viking 2W.
What form are Molde and Viking in?
Molde (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Viking (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Molde's attack at 0.90x the league average against Viking's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.49x) against Molde's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 2.22.
These ratings are built from 39/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 1-3 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
23%
4.35
20%
4.96
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
1 – 3
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Molde xG
Total xG
3.58
2.22
Viking xG
4.35
23%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
11%
9.20
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
3%
39.99
15%
6.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Molde and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Molde and 2.22 for Viking, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Viking?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Molde's recent record stands at 30W 13D 17L from 60 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 34W 13D 13L across 60 games — 1.92 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Molde against 1.92 for Viking. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Molde have managed 17W 6D 7L from 30 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Viking's away record stands at 14W 7D 9L across 30 trips, a 1.63 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Molde are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 2.03 scored and 1.45 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Viking in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 30W 13D 17L in their last 60 games (1.72 PPG), while Viking have gone 34W 13D 13L in their last 60 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Viking away?
Molde's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 1.90 PPG; Viking away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Molde or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Viking in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Viking have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 4-0 on 1 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Molde have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Molde
2
Draws
5
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Molde have won 3, Viking have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Viking 4-1 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 60%, Viking 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Molde and 60% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Molde's games and 57% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Molde vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Molde's matches and 60% of Viking's.
Do Molde and Viking tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Viking in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Viking edge out Molde 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Molde 0-1 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 1.36 xG and Viking 2.22 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Molde fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Viking landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against Viking attack 1.49 / defence 1.01, drawn from 39/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 23% | Draw 20% | Viking 57%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 70%, Viking 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Molde 1.72 PPG, Viking 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Molde (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Viking (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.