Kristiansund BK 3-1 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fredrikstad at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kristiansund BK host Fredrikstad at Aker Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 13). Kick-off is Monday 8 July 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Kristiansund BK — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Kristiansund BK at home: 2W 3D 2L from their last 7 home games — 1.29 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Fredrikstad have recorded 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Fredrikstad away from home: 4W 2D 1L from their last 7 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.86 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from their last 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Fredrikstad — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (last 12 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Fredrikstad in-play and half-time data (last 12 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 75% versus Fredrikstad 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 50% | Fredrikstad 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.33 xG and Fredrikstad 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 1.056 / defence 1.088 | Fredrikstad attack 1.004 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.473. Data: built from Kristiansund BK's last 13 games and Fredrikstad's last 12.
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 32% | Draw 24% | Fredrikstad 44%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 3.15 | Draw 4.11 | Fredrikstad 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fredrikstad are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kristiansund BK's last 7 home games and Fredrikstad's last 7 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kristiansund BK 71% (last 7 home games) | Fredrikstad 43% (last 7 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 13 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 8 July 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 32% | Draw 24% | Fredrikstad 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Kristiansund BK 1.33 / Fredrikstad 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 1.056 / def 1.088 | Fredrikstad attack 1.004 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Fredrikstad xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad FAQs
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 8 July 2024 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad?
Kristiansund BK 3 - 1 Fredrikstad.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 13) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 32% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Fredrikstad will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 1.06x the league average against Fredrikstad's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fredrikstad's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kristiansund BK's last 13 games and Fredrikstad's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
32%
3.15
24%
4.11
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
2.94
1.61
Fredrikstad xG
3.15
32%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
6%
15.76
12%
8.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.61 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kristiansund BK's recent record stands at 2W 5D 5L from 12 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Fredrikstad, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 2L across 12 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fredrikstad by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kristiansund BK heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kristiansund BK have managed 2W 3D 1L from their last 6 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Kristiansund BK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fredrikstad's away record stands at 3W 2D 1L across their last 6 away games, a 1.83 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.67 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fredrikstad in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Fredrikstad
Blended
Kristiansund BK (Home) vs Fredrikstad (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Fredrikstad
Blended
❓ Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad Form FAQs
What form are Kristiansund BK and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 2W 5D 5L in their last 12 games (0.92 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 6W 4D 2L in their last 12 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Fredrikstad away?
Fredrikstad's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.50 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Kristiansund BK or Fredrikstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kristiansund BK have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Fredrikstad in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2024. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Fredrikstad specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Kristiansund BK
1
Draws
3
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Fredrikstad?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Kristiansund BK have won 2, Fredrikstad have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Fredrikstad last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: Fredrikstad 1-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Fredrikstad?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kristiansund BK at 83%, Fredrikstad at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kristiansund BK) and 50% (Fredrikstad).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kristiansund BK vs Fredrikstad Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kristiansund BK and Fredrikstad matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Kristiansund BK's games and 50% of Fredrikstad's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kristiansund BK and Fredrikstad matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kristiansund BK's recent games and 50% of Fredrikstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kristiansund BK and Fredrikstad matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Kristiansund BK's recent matches and 67% of Fredrikstad's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kristiansund BK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fredrikstad.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK beat Fredrikstad 3-1 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.33 xG and Fredrikstad 1.61 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kristiansund BK beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 1.06 / defence 1.09 against Fredrikstad attack 1.00 / defence 0.91, drawn from 13/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 32% | Draw 24% | Fredrikstad 44%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Kristiansund BK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 50%, Fredrikstad 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Kristiansund BK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.