Rosenborg 2-1 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rosenborg host ODD Ballklubb at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 July 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Lerkendal Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, ODD Ballklubb have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rosenborg at 1.10 PPG versus ODD Ballklubb's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rosenborg register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, ODD Ballklubb in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Rosenborg: 5 wins from 8 previous clashes against 1 for ODD Ballklubb, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2023, ended 3–2 with Rosenborg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Rosenborg and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Rosenborg trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 64% versus ODD Ballklubb 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 67% | ODD Ballklubb 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.42 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.990 / defence 0.993 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.730 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.474. Data: 42 Rosenborg games / 43 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 45% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 28%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | ODD Ballklubb 3.57. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Rosenborg 80% | ODD Ballklubb 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jul 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 45% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Rosenborg 1.42 / ODD Ballklubb 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.990 / def 0.993 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.730 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.07
ODD Ballklubb xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 7 July 2024 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Rosenborg 2 - 1 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 45% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (8 meetings): Rosenborg 5W | Draws 2 | ODD Ballklubb 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rosenborg's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
45%
2.22
27%
3.76
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.49
1.07
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
7%
14.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.6 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.07 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 15W 8D 19L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ODD Ballklubb's form line: 13W 12D 17L from 42 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-D. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rosenborg on 1.26 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 1.55 PPG from 20 outings (9W 4D 7L).
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 5W 5D 10L from 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rosenborg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.31 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 15W 8D 19L in their last 42 games (1.26 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 13W 12D 17L in their last 42 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.55 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 August 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rosenborg go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Rosenborg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Rosenborg
2
Draws
1
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 7, ODD Ballklubb have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 65%, ODD Ballklubb 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Rosenborg and 60% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Rosenborg's games and 55% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Rosenborg's matches and 60% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out ODD Ballklubb 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat ODD Ballklubb 2-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.42 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.07 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.99 / defence 0.99 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.73 / defence 1.04, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 45% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 28%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 67%, ODD Ballklubb 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.26 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.