KFUM Oslo 2-1 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KFUM Oslo at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fredrikstad make the trip to KFUM Arena to face KFUM Oslo in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Wednesday 1 October 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
KFUM Oslo (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for KFUM Oslo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KFUM Oslo's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at KFUM Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fredrikstad's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fredrikstad's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for KFUM Oslo against 1.40 for Fredrikstad. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: KFUM Oslo 0W, Fredrikstad 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Fredrikstad winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
KFUM Oslo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Fredrikstad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KFUM Oslo 54% versus Fredrikstad 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KFUM Oslo 46% | Fredrikstad 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 1.43 xG and Fredrikstad 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 1.056 / defence 0.923 | Fredrikstad attack 0.797 / defence 0.790. League average goals — home 1.715 / away 1.338. Fredrikstad's defence strength of 0.790 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 KFUM Oslo games / 52 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 47% | Draw 27% | Fredrikstad 26%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Fredrikstad 3.85. KFUM Oslo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KFUM Oslo at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KFUM Oslo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: KFUM Oslo 60% | Fredrikstad 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: KFUM Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 47% | Draw 27% | Fredrikstad 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG KFUM Oslo 1.43 / Fredrikstad 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: KFUM Oslo attack 1.056 / def 0.923 | Fredrikstad attack 0.797 / def 0.790 | league avg home 1.715 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: KFUM Oslo (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
KFUM Oslo xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Fredrikstad xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad kick off?
KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 1 October 2025 at KFUM Arena.
What was the final score in KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad?
KFUM Oslo 2 - 1 Fredrikstad.
Where is KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at KFUM Arena.
What competition is KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad part of?
KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives KFUM Oslo a 47% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making KFUM Oslo the favourite.
Will both teams score in KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both KFUM Oslo and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Fredrikstad?
Record (3 meetings): KFUM Oslo 0W | Draws 1 | Fredrikstad 2W.
What form are KFUM Oslo and Fredrikstad in?
KFUM Oslo (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Fredrikstad (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
KFUM Oslo's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Fredrikstad's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Fredrikstad's attack (0.80x) against KFUM Oslo's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KFUM Oslo Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.69
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
KFUM Oslo xG
Total xG
2.41
0.98
Fredrikstad xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
6%
16.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are KFUM Oslo and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for KFUM Oslo and 0.98 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, KFUM Oslo have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 16W 18D 18L record — D-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for KFUM Oslo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fredrikstad's form line: 22W 16D 14L from 52 games, 1.58 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-L. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for KFUM Oslo against 1.58 for Fredrikstad. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, KFUM Oslo have posted 1.12 PPG from 25 outings (6W 10D 9L).
On the road, Fredrikstad have gone 9W 7D 9L from 25 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
KFUM Oslo are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.29 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Fredrikstad in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KFUM Oslo
Blended
Fredrikstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KFUM Oslo and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
KFUM Oslo have gone 16W 18D 18L in their last 52 games (1.27 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 22W 16D 14L in their last 52 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KFUM Oslo at home or Fredrikstad away?
Fredrikstad's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KFUM Oslo at home: 1.12 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 1.36 PPG.
Have KFUM Oslo or Fredrikstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
KFUM Oslo have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Fredrikstad in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fredrikstad won 1-4 on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KFUM Oslo have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Fredrikstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
KFUM Oslo
1
Draws
3
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Fredrikstad?
From 5 meetings on record, KFUM Oslo have won 1, Fredrikstad have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KFUM Oslo and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Fredrikstad 3-1 KFUM Oslo.
Who has won more matches between KFUM Oslo and Fredrikstad?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KFUM Oslo see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KFUM Oslo 60%, Fredrikstad 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (KFUM Oslo) and 36% (Fredrikstad).
On the defensive side: KFUM Oslo keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Fredrikstad in 36%; Fredrikstad in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KFUM Oslo home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KFUM Oslo play Fredrikstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of KFUM Oslo's recent matches and 40% of Fredrikstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of KFUM Oslo's recent games and 36% of Fredrikstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KFUM Oslo and Fredrikstad tend to score early?
KFUM Oslo have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Fredrikstad in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KFUM Oslo edge out Fredrikstad 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KFUM Oslo beat Fredrikstad 2-1 at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 1.43 xG and Fredrikstad 0.98 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 1.06 / defence 0.92 against Fredrikstad attack 0.80 / defence 0.79, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 47% | Draw 27% | Fredrikstad 26%, with KFUM Oslo to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KFUM Oslo 46%, Fredrikstad 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KFUM Oslo 1.27 PPG, Fredrikstad 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KFUM Oslo win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.