Haugesund 1-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Haugesund face Sarpsborg 08 FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Haugesund host Sarpsborg 08 FF at Haugesund Sparebank Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 13). Kick-off is Sunday 7 July 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Haugesund stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Haugesund at home: 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Haugesund are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sarpsborg 08 FF — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Haugesund 1.00 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Haugesund, 2 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Jul 2023, ended Haugesund 1–2 Sarpsborg 08 FF — a Sarpsborg 08 FF win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Haugesund in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 49% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 51% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.29 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.769 / defence 0.900 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.093 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.504. Haugesund's attack rating of 0.769 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.29. Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating of 1.216 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Haugesund's projected output up. Data: built from Haugesund's last 41 games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 42.
Result probabilities: Haugesund 33% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 42%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.03 | Draw 3.95 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Haugesund's last 10 home games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Haugesund 30% (last 10 home games) | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 13 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 July 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 33% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Haugesund 1.29 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.769 / def 0.900 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.093 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.504 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF FAQs
What time does Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 7 July 2024 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Haugesund 1 - 2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 13) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 33% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Haugesund's attack rating (0.77) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Haugesund's last 41 games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
33%
3.03
25%
3.95
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.77
1.48
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
8%
13.30
11%
8.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.3 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.48 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 13W 7D 21L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form line: 15W 6D 20L from 41 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haugesund on 1.12 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.38 PPG from their last 21 home games (9W 2D 10L).
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 6W 4D 11L from their last 21 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.71 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 68%.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Haugesund (Home) vs Sarpsborg 08 FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Haugesund
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Form FAQs
What form are Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 13W 7D 21L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 15W 6D 20L in their last 41 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Haugesund's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.38 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 10 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Oct 2022, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-0 Haugesund.
Haugesund's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haugesund
3
Draws
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Haugesund have won 3, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 August 2025: Haugesund 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 52%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Haugesund) and 67% (Sarpsborg 08 FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Haugesund's games and 62% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Haugesund's matches and 67% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Haugesund's recent matches and 71% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sarpsborg 08 FF edge out Haugesund 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Haugesund 1-2 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.29 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.48 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.77 / defence 0.90 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.09 / defence 1.22, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 33% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 42%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 51%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.12 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.