Haugesund 1-3 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Rosenborg travel to Haugesund Sparebank Arena to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 April 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Haugesund's home record at Haugesund Sparebank Arena: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Rosenborg have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Rosenborg have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Haugesund) versus 1.10 (Rosenborg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Haugesund, 2 for Rosenborg and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Rosenborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Haugesund in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haugesund 57% and Rosenborg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 55% | Rosenborg 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.23 xG and Rosenborg 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.933 / defence 1.049 | Rosenborg attack 0.939 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.397. Data: 33 Haugesund games / 33 Rosenborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Haugesund 33% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 40%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Rosenborg 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 50% | Rosenborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 33% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Haugesund 1.23 / Rosenborg 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.933 / def 1.049 | Rosenborg attack 0.939 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Rosenborg xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Rosenborg kick off?
Haugesund vs Rosenborg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Haugesund 1 - 3 Rosenborg.
Where is Haugesund vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Rosenborg part of?
Haugesund vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 33% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Haugesund and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Rosenborg?
Record (6 meetings): Haugesund 1W | Draws 3 | Rosenborg 2W.
What form are Haugesund and Rosenborg in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 0.93x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
33%
2.99
26%
3.81
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.60
1.38
Rosenborg xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
8%
11.85
12%
8.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.38 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 19W 14D 27L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Rosenborg's form line: 27W 14D 19L from 60 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Venue Form
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.50 PPG from 30 outings (13W 6D 11L).
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 8W 9D 13L from 30 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.92 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 67%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 27W 14D 19L in their last 60 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Rosenborg away?
Haugesund's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.50 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Rosenborg have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Rosenborg won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Haugesund
3
Draws
6
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 1, Rosenborg have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Haugesund 0-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Haugesund at 67%, Rosenborg at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Haugesund and 73% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Haugesund's games and 73% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Haugesund's matches and 73% of Rosenborg's.
Do Haugesund and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Haugesund 1-3 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.23 xG and Rosenborg 1.38 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Rosenborg outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.93 / defence 1.05 against Rosenborg attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 33% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 40%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 55%, Rosenborg 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Haugesund (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.