Viking 1-1 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
SR-Bank Arena plays host to Viking versus Fredrikstad in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Viking have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Viking's home record at SR-Bank Arena: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Viking are significantly better at SR-Bank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.19 xG and Fredrikstad 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.023 / defence 0.895 | Fredrikstad attack 0.977 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.397. Data: 33 Viking games / 3 Fredrikstad games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Viking 36% | Draw 28% | Fredrikstad 37%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Fredrikstad 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fredrikstad at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 36% | Draw 28% | Fredrikstad 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Viking 1.19 / Fredrikstad 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.023 / def 0.895 | Fredrikstad attack 0.977 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Fredrikstad xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Viking vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Fredrikstad?
Viking 1 - 1 Fredrikstad.
Where is Viking vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Fredrikstad part of?
Viking vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 36% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Viking and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Fredrikstad?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Viking and Fredrikstad in?
Viking (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Viking home split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 2.30 / GA 1.80 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.02x the league average against Fredrikstad's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fredrikstad's attack (0.98x) against Viking's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
The sample (33/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
36%
2.81
28%
3.63
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Viking xG
Total xG
2.41
1.22
Fredrikstad xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
10%
9.54
11%
8.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Viking and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Viking and 1.22 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Fredrikstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Pre-Season
Fredrikstad
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Viking go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 3-0 on 22 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Fredrikstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Viking
1
Draws
1
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Fredrikstad?
From 5 meetings on record, Viking have won 3, Fredrikstad have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Fredrikstad 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Fredrikstad?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Viking and Fredrikstad share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 4, as Viking and Fredrikstad drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.19 xG and Fredrikstad 1.22 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.02 / defence 0.90 against Fredrikstad attack 0.98 / defence 0.95, drawn from 33/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Viking 36% | Draw 28% | Fredrikstad 37%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.