Ham-Kam 0-2 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 39%, yet in-form Rosenborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rosenborg make the trip to Briskeby Arena to face Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Ham-Kam (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Briskeby Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Briskeby Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Rosenborg have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Rosenborg are 1.00 PPG clear of Ham-Kam in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.50 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Ham-Kam, 3 for Rosenborg and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Rosenborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 44% versus Rosenborg 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 51% | Rosenborg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.37 xG and Rosenborg 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.880 / defence 0.876 | Rosenborg attack 1.145 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.289. Data: 57 Ham-Kam games / 57 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 39% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 35%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Rosenborg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ham-Kam at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rosenborg (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 30% | Rosenborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 39% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Ham-Kam 1.37 / Rosenborg 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.880 / def 0.876 | Rosenborg attack 1.145 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Rosenborg xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg?
Ham-Kam 0 - 2 Rosenborg.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg part of?
Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 39% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ham-Kam and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Rosenborg?
Record (5 meetings): Ham-Kam 1W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 3W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Rosenborg in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Rosenborg (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ham-Kam's attack rating (0.88) and Rosenborg's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.15x) against Ham-Kam's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
39%
2.57
26%
3.85
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.67
1.29
Rosenborg xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
11%
9.38
9%
11.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.29 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ham-Kam's recent record stands at 18W 13D 26L from 57 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 25W 10D 22L across 57 games — 1.49 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Ham-Kam against 1.49 for Rosenborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ham-Kam have managed 10W 7D 11L from 28 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 8W 6D 14L across 28 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.60 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 63%.
Last 57 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 18W 13D 26L in their last 57 games (1.18 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 25W 10D 22L in their last 57 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Rosenborg away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.32 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 4 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Ham-Kam
1
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Rosenborg?
From 8 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 2, Rosenborg have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when Ham-Kam 4-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 32%, Rosenborg 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Ham-Kam) and 71% (Rosenborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 68% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Ham-Kam's matches and 71% of Rosenborg's.
Do Ham-Kam and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Ham-Kam 0-2 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.37 xG and Rosenborg 1.29 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ham-Kam fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.88 / defence 0.88 against Rosenborg attack 1.15 / defence 1.02, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 39% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 35%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Rosenborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 51%, Rosenborg 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rosenborg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.18 PPG, Rosenborg 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Rosenborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.