Ham-Kam 1-0 Bryne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Bryne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ham-Kam host Bryne at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ham-Kam — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Briskeby Arena, Ham-Kam have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bryne stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bryne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bryne's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 5L across 8 road games this term (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.62 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Ham-Kam) versus 1.30 (Bryne). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ham-Kam register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Bryne in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ham-Kam, 0 for Bryne and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jun 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ham-Kam in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Bryne in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 53% versus Bryne 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 53% | Bryne 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.67 xG and Bryne 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.876 / defence 1.118 | Bryne attack 0.749 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.363. Data: 47 Ham-Kam games / 17 Bryne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 49% | Draw 26% | Bryne 25%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Bryne 4.00. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ham-Kam at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 70% | Bryne 62% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Bryne | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 49% | Draw 26% | Bryne 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Ham-Kam 1.67 / Bryne 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.876 / def 1.118 | Bryne attack 0.749 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Bryne xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Bryne kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Bryne kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 17 August 2025 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Bryne?
Ham-Kam 1 - 0 Bryne.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Bryne being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Bryne part of?
Ham-Kam vs Bryne is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Bryne?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 49% chance of winning, Bryne a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Bryne?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ham-Kam and Bryne will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Bryne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Bryne?
Record (1 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 1 | Bryne 0W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Bryne in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Bryne (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ham-Kam's attack rating (0.88) and Bryne's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bryne's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.85
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.81
1.14
Bryne xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
5%
21.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Bryne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Bryne expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.14 for Bryne, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Bryne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Ham-Kam have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 4W 5D 8L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bryne's form line: 5W 4D 8L from 17 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Bryne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ham-Kam on 1.00 PPG, Bryne on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ham-Kam have posted 1.12 PPG from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L).
On the road, Bryne have gone 1W 2D 5L from 8 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bryne's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ham-Kam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Bryne are on 1.24 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Bryne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Bryne in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 4W 5D 8L in their last 17 games (1.00 PPG), while Bryne have gone 5W 4D 8L in their last 17 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Bryne away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.12 PPG; Bryne away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ham-Kam
1
Draws
0
Bryne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Bryne?
From 2 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 1, Bryne have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Bryne last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2025, when Ham-Kam 1-0 Bryne.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Bryne?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bryne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ham-Kam at 88%, Bryne at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Ham-Kam) and 50% (Bryne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Bryne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Bryne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Ham-Kam's games and 62% of Bryne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ham-Kam vs Bryne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Ham-Kam's matches and 50% of Bryne's.
Do Ham-Kam and Bryne tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Bryne in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ham-Kam edge out Bryne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Bryne 1-0 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.67 xG and Bryne 1.14 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bryne landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.88 / defence 1.12 against Bryne attack 0.75 / defence 1.17, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 49% | Draw 26% | Bryne 25%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 53%, Bryne 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Bryne's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.00 PPG, Bryne 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. Bryne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.