Ham-Kam 1-0 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ham-Kam face Bodo/Glimt.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Ham-Kam and Bodo/Glimt meet at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Monday 20 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

Ham-Kam (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Ham-Kam's home record at Briskeby Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bodo/Glimt are 1.40 PPG clear of Ham-Kam in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.50 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ham-Kam, 2 for Bodo/Glimt and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 4–4 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ham-Kam 57% and Bodo/Glimt 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 57% | Bodo/Glimt 72%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.01 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.859 / defence 0.988 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.611 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.521. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.611 — the away xG of 2.42 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Ham-Kam games / 38 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 14% | Draw 18% | Bodo/Glimt 68%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 7.14 | Draw 5.56 | Bodo/Glimt 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 40% | Bodo/Glimt 70% BTTS from recent games.

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