Ham-Kam 1-0 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 68% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ham-Kam vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Ham-Kam and Bodo/Glimt meet at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 9). This fixture gets under way on Monday 20 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form

Ham-Kam (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Ham-Kam's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bodo/Glimt are 1.40 PPG clear of Ham-Kam over their recent games (2.50 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.2 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Ham-Kam 4–4 Bodo/Glimt — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ham-Kam 57% and Bodo/Glimt 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 57% | Bodo/Glimt 72%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ham-Kam surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Bodo/Glimt have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.01 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.859 / defence 0.988 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.611 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.521. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack rating of 1.611, which lifts their away xG to 2.42. Data: built from Ham-Kam's last 39 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 38.

Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 14% | Draw 18% | Bodo/Glimt 68%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 7.10 | Draw 5.70 | Bodo/Glimt 1.46. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (68%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Ham-Kam's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ham-Kam 40% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 70% (last 10 away games).

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