Fredrikstad 2-2 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fredrikstad at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fredrikstad vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fredrikstad host Haugesund at Fredrikstad Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fredrikstad — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fredrikstad's home record at Fredrikstad Stadion: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Fredrikstad are significantly better at Fredrikstad Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Haugesund have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Fredrikstad are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Fredrikstad have won 1, Haugesund 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Fredrikstad in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 40% versus Haugesund 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 38% | Haugesund 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 2.24 xG and Haugesund 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 1.000 / defence 0.900 | Haugesund attack 0.608 / defence 1.358. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.351. Haugesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.358 — this is suppressing Fredrikstad's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Fredrikstad games / 49 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 71% | Draw 18% | Haugesund 10%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 1.41 | Draw 5.56 | Haugesund 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Fredrikstad (71%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fredrikstad at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 0.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Fredrikstad 40% | Haugesund 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 71% | Draw 18% | Haugesund 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 47% | xG Fredrikstad 2.24 / Haugesund 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 1.000 / def 0.900 | Haugesund attack 0.608 / def 1.358 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Haugesund xG
47%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Haugesund kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 31 August 2025 at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Haugesund?
Fredrikstad 2 - 2 Haugesund.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Haugesund part of?
Fredrikstad vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 71% chance of winning, Haugesund a 10% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Fredrikstad and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Haugesund?
Record (3 meetings): Fredrikstad 1W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 1W.
What form are Fredrikstad and Haugesund in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Haugesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fredrikstad's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.24. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Fredrikstad's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 3-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
71%
1.41
18%
5.42
10%
9.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.98
0.74
Haugesund xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.42
18%
Draw
9.60
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
11%
9.40
Win to Nil
34%
2.95
1%
90.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 0.74 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Fredrikstad have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 21W 14D 13L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund's form line: 9W 9D 30L from 48 games, 0.75 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fredrikstad are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fredrikstad have posted 1.96 PPG from 23 outings (13W 6D 4L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 1W 6D 16L from 23 away games — 0.39 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 0.79 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Defensively: Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 21W 14D 13L in their last 48 games (1.60 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 9W 9D 30L in their last 48 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Haugesund away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.96 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.39 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Haugesund in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Fredrikstad's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Fredrikstad
2
Draws
1
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Haugesund?
From 4 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 1, Haugesund have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when Fredrikstad 2-2 Haugesund.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 39%, Haugesund 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Fredrikstad) and 61% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Fredrikstad have failed to score in 30% of games; Haugesund in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Fredrikstad's recent matches and 52% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fredrikstad vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 61% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fredrikstad and Haugesund tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fredrikstad and Haugesund share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad and Haugesund finished level at 2-2 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 2.24 xG and Haugesund 0.74 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Haugesund outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 1.00 / defence 0.90 against Haugesund attack 0.61 / defence 1.36, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 71% | Draw 18% | Haugesund 10%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 38%, Haugesund 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Haugesund's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.