Bryne 4-3 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bryne vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bryne host Fredrikstad at Bryne Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 May 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fredrikstad stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Fredrikstad have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bryne 0.87 xG and Fredrikstad 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bryne attack 0.767 / defence 1.259 | Fredrikstad attack 0.728 / defence 0.759. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.376. Bryne's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fredrikstad's defence strength of 0.759 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 7 Bryne games / 37 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bryne 25% | Draw 31% | Fredrikstad 44%. Fair-value odds: Bryne 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Fredrikstad 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fredrikstad at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bryne vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Bryne Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bryne 25% | Draw 31% | Fredrikstad 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Bryne 0.87 / Fredrikstad 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Bryne attack 0.767 / def 1.259 | Fredrikstad attack 0.728 / def 0.759 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Bryne xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Fredrikstad xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bryne vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Bryne vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Bryne Stadion.
What was the final score in Bryne vs Fredrikstad?
Bryne 4 - 3 Fredrikstad.
Where is Bryne vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Bryne Stadion.
What competition is Bryne vs Fredrikstad part of?
Bryne vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bryne vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Bryne a 25% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bryne vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bryne and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Bryne vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bryne and Fredrikstad?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bryne and Fredrikstad in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Fredrikstad away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bryne's attack at 0.77x the league average against Fredrikstad's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fredrikstad's attack versus Bryne's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
25%
4.06
31%
3.24
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Bryne xG
Total xG
2.13
1.26
Fredrikstad xG
4.06
25%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
7%
14.31
19%
5.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 15.0 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bryne vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Bryne and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Bryne and 1.26 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Bryne vs Fredrikstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bryne
Pre-Season
Fredrikstad
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bryne
1
Draws
0
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bryne and Fredrikstad?
From 2 meetings on record, Bryne have won 1, Fredrikstad have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bryne and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Fredrikstad 1-1 Bryne.
Who has won more matches between Bryne and Fredrikstad?
Bryne have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bryne home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Bryne defy the odds to beat Fredrikstad 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bryne beat Fredrikstad 4-3 at Bryne Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bryne 0.87 xG and Fredrikstad 1.26 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Bryne beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fredrikstad outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bryne attack 0.77 / defence 1.26 against Fredrikstad attack 0.73 / defence 0.76, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bryne 25% | Draw 31% | Fredrikstad 44%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Bryne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.