Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 70% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bodo/Glimt face Stromsgodset.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt host Stromsgodset at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 11 September 2021 at 02:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bodo/Glimt stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Bodo/Glimt have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Stromsgodset — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Stromsgodset away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bodo/Glimt at 1.80 PPG versus Stromsgodset's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 0 for Stromsgodset and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 9.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Jun 2021, ended Bodo/Glimt 7–2 Stromsgodset — a Bodo/Glimt win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 9.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (last 47 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Stromsgodset trading profile (last 47 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 62% and Stromsgodset 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 77% | Stromsgodset 64%). Note also that Stromsgodset surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Bodo/Glimt recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.36 xG and Stromsgodset 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.347 / defence 0.893 | Stromsgodset attack 0.774 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.850 / away 1.226. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.347 — their 2.36 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Stromsgodset's attack rating of 0.774 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 47 games and Stromsgodset's last 47.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 70% | Draw 20% | Stromsgodset 10%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.44 | Draw 4.93 | Stromsgodset 9.82. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (70%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Stromsgodset's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 40% (last 10 home games) | Stromsgodset 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 21 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 September 2021 at 02:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 70% | Draw 20% | Stromsgodset 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.36 / Stromsgodset 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.347 / def 0.893 | Stromsgodset attack 0.774 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.850 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.36
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Stromsgodset xG
53%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset FAQs
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 02:00 UK time on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 21) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 70% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 10% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.35) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 2.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bodo/Glimt's last 47 games and Stromsgodset's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
70%
1.44
20%
4.93
10%
9.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.36
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.21
0.85
Stromsgodset xG
1.44
70%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
9.82
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
9%
10.59
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
1%
104.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.85 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Bodo/Glimt have picked up 2.45 PPG on a 36W 7D 4L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Stromsgodset's form line: 14W 14D 19L from 47 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 1.26 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stromsgodset.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bodo/Glimt have posted 2.71 PPG from their last 24 home games (21W 2D 1L).
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 5W 6D 13L from their last 24 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.96 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.40 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Stromsgodset in 62%.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
Bodo/Glimt (Home) vs Stromsgodset (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset Form FAQs
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 36W 7D 4L in their last 47 games (2.45 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 14W 14D 19L in their last 47 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Stromsgodset away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.71 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Stromsgodset been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Stromsgodset in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 15 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Jun 2021, when Bodo/Glimt won Bodo/Glimt 7-2 Stromsgodset.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
1
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, Stromsgodset have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2025: Stromsgodset 0-5 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 54%, Stromsgodset 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Bodo/Glimt and 62% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Stromsgodset in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 58% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 62% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 75% of Stromsgodset's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bodo/Glimt's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 21, as Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.36 xG and Stromsgodset 0.85 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Stromsgodset landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.35 / defence 0.89 against Stromsgodset attack 0.77 / defence 0.95, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 70% | Draw 20% | Stromsgodset 10%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 77%, Stromsgodset 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.