Mjondalen 1-1 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjondalen at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjondalen vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Brann travel to Consto Arena to take on Mjondalen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 October 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjondalen stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjondalen have posted 1W 4D 5L at Consto Arena — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Brann are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mjondalen register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Brann in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Mjondalen, 0 for Brann and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Mjondalen in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Brann in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mjondalen 54% and Brann 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 48% | Brann 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.53 xG and Brann 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.775 / defence 1.065 | Brann attack 0.944 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.809 / away 1.322. Mjondalen's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 1.53 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Mjondalen games / 50 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 40% | Draw 30% | Brann 30%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Brann 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Mjondalen dominate the H2H record, yet Brann are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Mjondalen are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Brann (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjondalen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Mjondalen 80% | Brann 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 40% | Draw 30% | Brann 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Mjondalen 1.53 / Brann 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.775 / def 1.065 | Brann attack 0.944 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.809 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Brann xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Brann kick off?
Mjondalen vs Brann kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs Brann?
Mjondalen 1 - 1 Brann.
Where is Mjondalen vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Brann part of?
Mjondalen vs Brann is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 40% chance of winning, Brann a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Mjondalen and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Brann?
Record (3 meetings): Mjondalen 2W | Draws 1 | Brann 0W.
What form are Mjondalen and Brann in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Brann (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjondalen's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Brann's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Mjondalen's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
40%
2.52
30%
3.35
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.86
1.33
Brann xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
11%
9.52
7%
15.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.33 for Brann, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Mjondalen have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 11W 10D 29L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann's form line: 13W 14D 23L from 50 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjondalen on 0.86 PPG, Brann on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mjondalen have posted 1.00 PPG from 25 outings (7W 4D 14L).
On the road, Brann have gone 6W 6D 13L from 25 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjondalen are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.30 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 72%.
Last 50 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Brann in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 11W 10D 29L in their last 50 games (0.86 PPG), while Brann have gone 13W 14D 23L in their last 50 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Brann away?
Mjondalen's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.00 PPG; Brann away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Mjondalen's record when hosting Brann specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Mjondalen
2
Draws
0
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Brann?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 2, Brann have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 3 October 2021, when Mjondalen 1-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Brann?
Mjondalen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 52%, Brann 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Mjondalen) and 56% (Brann).
On the defensive side: Brann in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Mjondalen's games and 60% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjondalen vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Mjondalen's recent games and 56% of Brann's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjondalen and Brann tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Brann in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjondalen and Brann share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 21, as Mjondalen and Brann drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.53 xG and Brann 1.33 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.78 / defence 1.06 against Brann attack 0.94 / defence 1.09, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 40% | Draw 30% | Brann 30%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 48%, Brann 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Brann's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjondalen 0.86 PPG, Brann 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Brann (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.