Bodo/Glimt 3-2 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 May 2023 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

Bodo/Glimt's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Rosenborg (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Rosenborg away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Bodo/Glimt against 1.90 for Rosenborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rosenborg in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 1 for Rosenborg and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 2–3 with Rosenborg winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Rosenborg — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 58% and Rosenborg 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 62% | Rosenborg 77%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.79 xG and Rosenborg 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.419 / defence 0.918 | Rosenborg attack 0.957 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.170. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.419 — their λ of 1.79 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 Bodo/Glimt games / 36 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 53% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 19%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Rosenborg 5.26. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 4.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 60% | Rosenborg 90% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights