Haugesund 1-1 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Haugesund Sparebank Arena plays host to Haugesund versus Valerenga in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Current Form
Haugesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Haugesund at Haugesund Sparebank Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Valerenga (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Valerenga have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Haugesund's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Haugesund register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Valerenga in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Haugesund lead 2W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Haugesund half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Valerenga half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 96% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haugesund 60% and Valerenga 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 62% | Valerenga 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.50 xG and Valerenga 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.937 / defence 0.917 | Valerenga attack 1.159 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.220. Data: 35 Haugesund games / 35 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 40% | Draw 29% | Valerenga 31%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Valerenga 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haugesund at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haugesund if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 80% | Valerenga 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 40% | Draw 29% | Valerenga 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Haugesund 1.50 / Valerenga 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.937 / def 0.917 | Valerenga attack 1.159 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Valerenga xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Valerenga kick off?
Haugesund vs Valerenga kicked off at 18:15 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Valerenga?
Haugesund 1 - 1 Valerenga.
Where is Haugesund vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Valerenga part of?
Haugesund vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 40% chance of winning, Valerenga a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Haugesund and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Valerenga?
Record (6 meetings): Haugesund 2W | Draws 1 | Valerenga 3W.
What form are Haugesund and Valerenga in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Valerenga (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Valerenga's attack (1.16x) against Haugesund's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
40%
2.50
29%
3.45
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.79
1.30
Valerenga xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
7%
14.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.30 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Haugesund's recent record stands at 19W 16D 25L from 60 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 24W 17D 19L across 60 games — 1.48 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Haugesund against 1.48 for Valerenga. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Haugesund have managed 14W 7D 9L from 30 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Valerenga's away record stands at 8W 8D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Haugesund are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.63 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haugesund have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Valerenga in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Valerenga
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 games (1.22 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 24W 17D 19L in their last 60 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Valerenga away?
Haugesund's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.63 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Valerenga go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valerenga won 3-0 on 20 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haugesund have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valerenga — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Haugesund
3
Draws
5
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 2, Valerenga have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Valerenga see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 63% for Haugesund, 67% for Valerenga — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Haugesund and 60% for Valerenga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Haugesund's games and 67% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Haugesund's matches and 60% of Valerenga's.
Do Haugesund and Valerenga tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haugesund and Valerenga share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 6, as Haugesund and Valerenga drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.50 xG and Valerenga 1.30 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against Valerenga attack 1.16 / defence 1.06, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 40% | Draw 29% | Valerenga 31%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 62%, Valerenga 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Valerenga's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.22 PPG, Valerenga 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.