Bodo/Glimt 3-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 2). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time.

Form

Bodo/Glimt (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Bodo/Glimt have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Ham-Kam have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Ham-Kam away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Bodo/Glimt. A 0.90 PPG lead over Ham-Kam (1.80 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt edge it 3 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2024, ended Bodo/Glimt 3–0 Ham-Kam — a Bodo/Glimt win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.

Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 58% versus Ham-Kam 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 65% | Ham-Kam 48%). Note also that Ham-Kam surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Bodo/Glimt recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 57% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.96 xG and Ham-Kam 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.257 / defence 1.026 | Ham-Kam attack 1.003 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.165. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.257 — their 1.96 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 31 games and Ham-Kam's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 55% | Draw 22% | Ham-Kam 23%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.82 | Draw 4.57 | Ham-Kam 4.33. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.96 / 1.20) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Ham-Kam's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 70% (last 10 home games) | Ham-Kam 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Bodo/Glimt 31 games, Ham-Kam 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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