Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Rotterdam (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Willem II face Sparta Rotterdam.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Sparta Rotterdam travel to Koning Willem II Stadion to take on Willem II. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Willem II have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 3.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II at Koning Willem II Stadion this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Willem II are significantly better at Koning Willem II Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Sparta Rotterdam — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Sparta Rotterdam's 1.20 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Willem II's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Willem II register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Sparta Rotterdam, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Willem II.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2026, ended 2–3 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Rotterdam have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Willem II in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 58% versus Sparta Rotterdam 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 58% | Sparta Rotterdam 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.30 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 2.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.665 / defence 1.556 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.040 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.842. Willem II's attack strength of 0.665 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Willem II games / 45 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 14% | Draw 15% | Sparta Rotterdam 71%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 7.14 | Draw 6.67 | Sparta Rotterdam 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Rotterdam (71%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 4.29. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.29 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 2.98) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Rotterdam are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 80% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 60% | Sparta Rotterdam 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 14% | Draw 15% | Sparta Rotterdam 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 69% | xG Willem II 1.30 / Sparta Rotterdam 2.98 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.665 / def 1.556 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.040 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.731 / away 1.842 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
2.98
Sparta Rotterdam xG
69%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
Where is Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 14% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 71% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (5 meetings): Willem II 0W | Draws 0 | Sparta Rotterdam 5W.
What form are Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Willem II (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 3.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Willem II's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Sparta Rotterdam's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 2.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.0%. Close behind: 1-3 (7.9%), 0-2 (6.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
14%
7.29
15%
6.67
71%
1.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.9%
Away win
0 – 2
6.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Willem II xG
Total xG
4.29
2.98
Sparta Rotterdam xG
7.29
14%
Home win
6.67
15%
Draw
1.40
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
43%
Over 4.5
2.33
57%
Under 4.5
1.75
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
5%
19.71
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
1%
143.64
19%
5.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 1.8 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 3.5 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Willem II and 2.98 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 4.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Willem II come into this having played 45 games, going 18W 10D 17L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sparta Rotterdam sit at 1.22 PPG from 45 outings (15W 10D 20L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Willem II on 1.42 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Willem II's home form reads 8W 6D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Rotterdam have taken 1.23 points per game from 22 outings (8W 3D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.33 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 18W 10D 17L in their last 45 games (1.42 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 15W 10D 20L in their last 45 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Willem II's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.36 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Sparta Rotterdam have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Mar 2025, when Sparta Rotterdam won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Willem II's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Willem II
0
Draws
5
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 5 meetings on record, Willem II have won 0, Sparta Rotterdam have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 3-2 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 54%, Sparta Rotterdam 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Willem II) and 73% (Sparta Rotterdam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Willem II's recent matches and 54% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Willem II's matches and 73% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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