Willem II 2-2 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Koning Willem II Stadion plays host to Willem II versus NAC Breda in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 24 November 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Willem II's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's home record at Koning Willem II Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Willem II are significantly better at Koning Willem II Stadion than their overall form suggests.
NAC Breda (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Willem II 1W, NAC Breda 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Willem II winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Willem II — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
NAC Breda — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 58% and NAC Breda 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 46% | NAC Breda 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.33 xG and NAC Breda 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.662 / defence 0.884 | NAC Breda attack 0.644 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.260. Willem II's attack strength of 0.662 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Willem II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Willem II games / 12 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 51% | Draw 29% | NAC Breda 20%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | NAC Breda 5.00. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 40% | NAC Breda 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 51% | Draw 29% | NAC Breda 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 38% | xG Willem II 1.33 / NAC Breda 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.662 / def 0.884 | NAC Breda attack 0.644 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Willem II (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
0.72
NAC Breda xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs NAC Breda kick off?
Willem II vs NAC Breda kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs NAC Breda?
Willem II 2 - 2 NAC Breda.
Where is Willem II vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs NAC Breda part of?
Willem II vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 51% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Willem II and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and NAC Breda?
Record (4 meetings): Willem II 1W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 2W.
What form are Willem II and NAC Breda in?
Willem II (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Willem II vs NAC Breda?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Willem II's attack rating (0.66) and NAC Breda's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.64x) against Willem II's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
51%
1.95
29%
3.51
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.04
0.72
NAC Breda xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
5%
18.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Willem II and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Willem II and 0.72 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Willem II come into this having played 50 games, going 27W 13D 10L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.54 PPG from 50 outings (22W 11D 17L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.88 PPG for Willem II against 1.54 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Willem II's home form reads 15W 4D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 1.33 points per game from 24 outings (9W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Willem II are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.68 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 64%.
Last 50 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 27W 13D 10L in their last 50 games (1.88 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 22W 11D 17L in their last 50 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or NAC Breda away?
Willem II's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.04 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Willem II or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 1-4 on 5 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Willem II
3
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 1, NAC Breda have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when NAC Breda 1-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 62%, NAC Breda 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Willem II and 58% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Willem II's games and 58% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Willem II's matches and 58% of NAC Breda's.
Do Willem II and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II and NAC Breda share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 13, as Willem II and NAC Breda drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.33 xG and NAC Breda 0.72 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. NAC Breda outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.66 / defence 0.88 against NAC Breda attack 0.64 / defence 1.20, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 51% | Draw 29% | NAC Breda 20%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 46%, NAC Breda 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
NAC Breda's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.88 PPG, NAC Breda 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Willem II (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.