Willem II vs Cambuur – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Willem II host Cambuur at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 16:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Willem II — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Willem II have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Willem II's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Koning Willem II Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Cambuur have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambuur away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Willem II have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Willem II register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cambuur in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Cambuur have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 6 encounters against Willem II's 0 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Cambuur winning.
It is worth noting that Cambuur have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Willem II trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cambuur trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 57% and Cambuur 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 55% | Cambuur 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.94 xG and Cambuur 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.889 / defence 1.273 | Cambuur attack 0.780 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.880. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing Willem II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Willem II games / 4 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 40% | Draw 22% | Cambuur 38%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.50 | Draw 4.55 | Cambuur 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Cambuur lead the H2H ledger, but Willem II carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 60% | Cambuur 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 40% | Draw 22% | Cambuur 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 73% | xG Willem II 1.94 / Cambuur 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.889 / def 1.273 | Cambuur attack 0.780 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.880 • Poisson stance: Willem II (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Cambuur xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Cambuur kick off?
Willem II vs Cambuur is scheduled to kick off at 16:45 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
Where is Willem II vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Cambuur part of?
Willem II vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 40% chance of winning, Cambuur a 38% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Willem II and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Cambuur?
Record (6 meetings): Willem II 0W | Draws 3 | Cambuur 3W.
What form are Willem II and Cambuur in?
Willem II (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Cambuur (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Willem II's attack at 0.89x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (7.8%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
40%
2.48
22%
4.51
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.80
1.87
Cambuur xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.68
Clean Sheet
15%
6.46
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
6%
16.02
5%
18.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Willem II and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Willem II and 1.87 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Willem II's recent record stands at 22W 9D 11L from 42 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cambuur, meanwhile, have gone 23W 9D 10L across 42 games — 1.86 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Willem II on 1.79 PPG, Cambuur on 1.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 8W 6D 6L from 20 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambuur's away record stands at 10W 4D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Willem II are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.88 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur in 67%.
Last 42 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Early Season
Cambuur
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 22W 9D 11L in their last 42 games (1.79 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 23W 9D 10L in their last 42 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.50 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Willem II or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cambuur in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Willem II and Cambuur runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Willem II's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Willem II
3
Draws
3
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 0, Cambuur have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Willem II 0-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 60%, Cambuur 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Willem II) and 60% (Cambuur). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Willem II's games and 65% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Willem II's matches and 60% of Cambuur's.
Do Willem II and Cambuur tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.