Willem II 0-2 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Almere City FC make the trip to Koning Willem II Stadion to face Willem II in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 March 2025 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Willem II have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's home record at Koning Willem II Stadion: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Almere City FC's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Willem II against 0.90 for Almere City FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Willem II, 1 for Almere City FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2024, ended 1–0 with Willem II winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Willem II — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 58% versus Almere City FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 48% | Almere City FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.19 xG and Almere City FC 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.828 / defence 1.261 | Almere City FC attack 0.686 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.314. Data: 26 Willem II games / 60 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 37% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Almere City FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 60% | Almere City FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 37% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Willem II 1.19 / Almere City FC 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.828 / def 1.261 | Almere City FC attack 0.686 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Willem II (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Almere City FC xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Almere City FC kick off?
Willem II vs Almere City FC kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Almere City FC?
Willem II 0 - 2 Almere City FC.
Where is Willem II vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Almere City FC part of?
Willem II vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 37% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Willem II and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Almere City FC?
Record (3 meetings): Willem II 1W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 1W.
What form are Willem II and Almere City FC in?
Willem II (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Willem II's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.69x) against Willem II's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 26/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
37%
2.72
29%
3.45
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.33
1.14
Almere City FC xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
10%
9.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Willem II and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Willem II and 1.14 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Willem II come into this having played 60 games, going 28W 14D 18L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 0.82 PPG from 60 outings (10W 19D 31L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Willem II's home form reads 16W 6D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 0.83 points per game from 30 outings (5W 10D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Willem II are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 0.82 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 28W 14D 18L in their last 60 games (1.63 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 10W 19D 31L in their last 60 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Almere City FC away?
Willem II's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.80 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Willem II have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Willem II
1
Draws
2
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Almere City FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Willem II have won 5, Almere City FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Willem II 2-0 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Almere City FC?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 67%, Almere City FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Willem II) and 47% (Almere City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Willem II's recent matches and 40% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Willem II's matches and 47% of Almere City FC's.
Do Willem II and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Willem II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Willem II 0-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.19 xG and Almere City FC 1.14 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Willem II fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Almere City FC outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.83 / defence 1.26 against Almere City FC attack 0.69 / defence 0.90, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 37% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 34%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 48%, Almere City FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Almere City FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.