Waalwijk 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Waalwijk welcome Sparta Rotterdam to Mandemakers Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 27 January 2024 at 17:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Waalwijk — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Waalwijk have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Sparta Rotterdam have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sparta Rotterdam — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Waalwijk, 1 for Sparta Rotterdam and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Waalwijk 0–2 Sparta Rotterdam — a Sparta Rotterdam win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 58% versus Sparta Rotterdam 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 65% | Sparta Rotterdam 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.00 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.844 / defence 1.137 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.026 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.465. Sparta Rotterdam bring a tight defence (rating 0.735, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Waalwijk's projected output down. Data: built from Waalwijk's last 52 games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 52.
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 20% | Draw 28% | Sparta Rotterdam 52%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 4.99 | Draw 3.60 | Sparta Rotterdam 1.92. Sparta Rotterdam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Rotterdam are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Waalwijk's last 10 home games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Waalwijk 60% (last 10 home games) | Sparta Rotterdam 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 19 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 January 2024 at 17:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 20% | Draw 28% | Sparta Rotterdam 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Waalwijk 1.00 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.844 / def 1.137 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.026 / def 0.735 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Sparta Rotterdam xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam FAQs
What time does Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 17:45 UK time on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Waalwijk 1 - 1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 19) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 20% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 52% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.84x the league average against Sparta Rotterdam's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Waalwijk's last 52 games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
20%
4.99
28%
3.60
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.71
1.71
Sparta Rotterdam xG
4.99
20%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
4%
27.59
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.71 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 15W 10D 27L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Sparta Rotterdam's form line: 24W 12D 16L from 52 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Sparta Rotterdam are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 1.42 PPG from their last 26 home games (11W 4D 11L).
On the road, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 12W 6D 8L from their last 26 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.62 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Waalwijk (Home) vs Sparta Rotterdam (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waalwijk
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam Form FAQs
What form are Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 15W 10D 27L in their last 52 games (1.06 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 24W 12D 16L in their last 52 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Sparta Rotterdam's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.42 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Waalwijk or Sparta Rotterdam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waalwijk have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Sparta Rotterdam in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 19 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Waalwijk's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Waalwijk
5
Draws
2
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Waalwijk have won 1, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 January 2025: Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 65%, Sparta Rotterdam 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Waalwijk and 62% for Sparta Rotterdam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam in 38%; Sparta Rotterdam in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Waalwijk's games and 46% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Waalwijk's matches and 62% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 69% of Sparta Rotterdam's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 19, as Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.00 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.71 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.84 / defence 1.14 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.03 / defence 0.73, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 20% | Draw 28% | Sparta Rotterdam 52%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 65%, Sparta Rotterdam 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Rotterdam arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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