FC Volendam 0-1 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Volendam host Fortuna Sittard at Kras Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 January 2024 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Volendam — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's home record at Kras Stadion: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Fortuna Sittard have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fortuna Sittard have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (FC Volendam) versus 1.10 (Fortuna Sittard). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, FC Volendam have won 1, Fortuna Sittard 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 1–3 with Fortuna Sittard winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Fortuna Sittard in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 64% versus Fortuna Sittard 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 69% | Fortuna Sittard 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.47 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.765 / defence 1.311 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.594 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.595 / away 1.461. FC Volendam's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.47 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fortuna Sittard bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 FC Volendam games / 52 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 42% | Draw 32% | Fortuna Sittard 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Fortuna Sittard 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC Volendam 60% | Fortuna Sittard 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jan 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 42% | Draw 32% | Fortuna Sittard 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Volendam 1.47 / Fortuna Sittard 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.765 / def 1.311 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.594 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.595 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Fortuna Sittard xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard?
FC Volendam 0 - 1 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 42% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (3 meetings): FC Volendam 1W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Sittard 2W.
What form are FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 0.77x the league average against Fortuna Sittard's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Sittard's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
42%
2.40
32%
3.11
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.61
1.14
Fortuna Sittard xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
13%
7.48
6%
16.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.14 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 13W 9D 30L from 52 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Sittard, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 26L across 52 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Volendam on 0.92 PPG, Fortuna Sittard on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 11W 2D 12L from 25 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fortuna Sittard's away record stands at 5W 5D 15L across 25 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.08 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 13W 9D 30L in their last 52 games (0.92 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 15W 11D 26L in their last 52 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.40 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fortuna Sittard go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Fortuna Sittard specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC Volendam
0
Draws
5
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 1, Fortuna Sittard have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when FC Volendam 1-2 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 64%, Fortuna Sittard 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for FC Volendam and 72% for Fortuna Sittard. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Fortuna Sittard?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of FC Volendam's games and 60% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of FC Volendam's matches and 72% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortuna Sittard defy the odds to beat FC Volendam 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat FC Volendam 0-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.47 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.14 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Volendam fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.77 / defence 1.31 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.59 / defence 1.21, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 42% | Draw 32% | Fortuna Sittard 26%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Fortuna Sittard win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 69%, Fortuna Sittard 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 0.92 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Sittard win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.