Waalwijk 2-0 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Heracles travel to Mandemakers Stadion to take on Waalwijk. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 11 May 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Waalwijk's home record at Mandemakers Stadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Heracles — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Heracles's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Waalwijk) versus 1.10 (Heracles). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Waalwijk, 1 for Heracles and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Heracles winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Heracles in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 66% versus Heracles 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 50% | Heracles 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.11 xG and Heracles 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.795 / defence 1.242 | Heracles attack 0.604 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.281. Waalwijk's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Waalwijk games / 32 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 39% | Draw 30% | Heracles 31%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Heracles 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Waalwijk 60% | Heracles 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 39% | Draw 30% | Heracles 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Waalwijk 1.11 / Heracles 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.795 / def 1.242 | Heracles attack 0.604 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Heracles xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Heracles kick off?
Waalwijk vs Heracles kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 11 May 2022 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Waalwijk 2 - 0 Heracles.
Where is Waalwijk vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Heracles part of?
Waalwijk vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 39% chance of winning, Heracles a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Waalwijk and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Heracles?
Record (1 meetings): Waalwijk 0W | Draws 0 | Heracles 1W.
What form are Waalwijk and Heracles in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Heracles (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (0.80) and Heracles's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
39%
2.58
30%
3.32
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.07
0.96
Heracles xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
10%
9.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Waalwijk and 0.96 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 7W 11D 14L from 32 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 16L across 32 games — 1.06 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.00 PPG, Heracles on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 5W 3D 8L from 16 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 2W 2D 12L across 16 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waalwijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.00 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Current Season
Heracles
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Heracles in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 7W 11D 14L in their last 32 games (1.00 PPG), while Heracles have gone 9W 7D 16L in their last 32 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Heracles away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.12 PPG; Heracles away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waalwijk and Heracles runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2024, when Waalwijk won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
2
Draws
3
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Heracles?
From 7 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 2, Heracles have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when Heracles 3-0 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 56%, Heracles 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Waalwijk) and 44% (Heracles).
On the defensive side: Waalwijk have failed to score in 31% of games; Heracles in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 44% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waalwijk vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Waalwijk's recent games and 44% of Heracles's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waalwijk and Heracles tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Heracles in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Heracles 2-0 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.11 xG and Heracles 0.96 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Waalwijk beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Heracles landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.80 / defence 1.24 against Heracles attack 0.60 / defence 1.22, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 39% | Draw 30% | Heracles 31%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 50%, Heracles 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Heracles's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.00 PPG, Heracles 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.