Vitesse 0-0 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Excelsior make the trip to GelreDome to face Vitesse in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 October 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vitesse have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Vitesse have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vitesse have posted 3W 2D 5L at GelreDome — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Excelsior (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Excelsior have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Excelsior's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Vitesse against 1.60 for Excelsior. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Vitesse have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Excelsior in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vitesse lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Vitesse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Excelsior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 46% versus Excelsior 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 51% | Excelsior 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.39 xG and Excelsior 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.772 / defence 1.095 | Excelsior attack 1.122 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.386. Vitesse's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Vitesse games / 41 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 31% | Draw 25% | Excelsior 44%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Excelsior 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 62% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Excelsior at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Vitesse 30% | Excelsior 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 31% | Draw 25% | Excelsior 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Vitesse 1.39 / Excelsior 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.772 / def 1.095 | Excelsior attack 1.122 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Excelsior xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Excelsior kick off?
Vitesse vs Excelsior kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Excelsior?
Vitesse 0 - 0 Excelsior.
Where is Vitesse vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Excelsior part of?
Vitesse vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 31% chance of winning, Excelsior a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Vitesse and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Excelsior?
Record (2 meetings): Vitesse 0W | Draws 1 | Excelsior 1W.
What form are Vitesse and Excelsior in?
Vitesse (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Excelsior (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vitesse's attack at 0.77x the league average against Excelsior's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Excelsior's attack (1.12x) against Vitesse's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
31%
3.25
25%
4.04
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Vitesse xG
Total xG
3.09
1.70
Excelsior xG
3.25
31%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
18%
5.48
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
6%
17.81
11%
9.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.70 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vitesse's recent record stands at 12W 10D 19L from 41 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Vitesse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Excelsior, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 21L across 41 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-L-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Excelsior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Vitesse against 1.07 for Excelsior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Vitesse have managed 5W 6D 9L from 20 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Excelsior's away record stands at 3W 3D 14L across 20 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Excelsior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitesse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vitesse are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.12 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Early Season
Excelsior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 12W 10D 19L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 12W 8D 21L in their last 41 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Excelsior away?
Vitesse's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.05 PPG; Excelsior away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitesse have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Vitesse
3
Draws
1
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Excelsior?
From 6 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 2, Excelsior have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Excelsior 1-3 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Excelsior?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 45%, Excelsior 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vitesse) and 60% (Excelsior). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse have failed to score in 35% of games; Excelsior in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Excelsior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Vitesse's recent matches and 40% of Excelsior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitesse vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Vitesse's matches and 60% of Excelsior's.
Do Vitesse and Excelsior tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vitesse's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse and Excelsior finished level at 0-0 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.39 xG and Excelsior 1.70 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vitesse fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Excelsior landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.77 / defence 1.09 against Excelsior attack 1.12 / defence 1.09, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 31% | Draw 25% | Excelsior 44%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 51%, Excelsior 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Excelsior's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.12 PPG, Excelsior 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.