Almere City FC 1-0 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yanmar Stadion plays host to Almere City FC versus Waalwijk in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
Almere City FC's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Yanmar Stadion, Almere City FC have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Waalwijk have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Waalwijk away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Almere City FC, 0.90 for Waalwijk — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Almere City FC half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 52% versus Waalwijk 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 45% | Waalwijk 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.29 xG and Waalwijk 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.685 / defence 1.524 | Waalwijk attack 0.820 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.427. Almere City FC's attack strength of 0.685 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Almere City FC games / 40 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 27% | Draw 25% | Waalwijk 48%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Waalwijk 2.08. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 60% | Waalwijk 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 27% | Draw 25% | Waalwijk 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Almere City FC 1.29 / Waalwijk 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.685 / def 1.524 | Waalwijk attack 0.820 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.634 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Waalwijk xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Waalwijk kick off?
Almere City FC vs Waalwijk kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Waalwijk?
Almere City FC 1 - 0 Waalwijk.
Where is Almere City FC vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Waalwijk part of?
Almere City FC vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 27% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Almere City FC and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Waalwijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Almere City FC and Waalwijk in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 0.69x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.82x) against Almere City FC's defence (1.52x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 7/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
27%
3.75
25%
3.93
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.08
1.78
Waalwijk xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
17%
5.96
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
4%
22.36
13%
7.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.78 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 20W 9D 11L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Waalwijk's form line: 13W 8D 19L from 40 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Almere City FC are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Almere City FC have posted 1.63 PPG from 19 outings (9W 4D 6L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 3W 4D 12L from 19 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Waalwijk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Almere City FC are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.38 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Defensively: Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Early Season
Waalwijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 20W 9D 11L in their last 40 games (1.72 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 13W 8D 19L in their last 40 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Waalwijk away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.63 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or Waalwijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Waalwijk in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Waalwijk won 1-4 on 2 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
2
Draws
3
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Waalwijk?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 1, Waalwijk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Almere City FC 2-2 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Waalwijk?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almere City FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 63%, Waalwijk 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Almere City FC and 68% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Almere City FC's games and 47% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Almere City FC's matches and 68% of Waalwijk's.
Do Almere City FC and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat Waalwijk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Waalwijk 1-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.29 xG and Waalwijk 1.78 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Waalwijk landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.69 / defence 1.52 against Waalwijk attack 0.82 / defence 1.15, drawn from 7/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 27% | Draw 25% | Waalwijk 48%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 45%, Waalwijk 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Waalwijk's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Almere City FC arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.