Sparta Rotterdam 1-4 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utrecht at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Utrecht travel to Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel to take on Sparta Rotterdam in Eredivisie (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sparta Rotterdam stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sparta Rotterdam at home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Utrecht — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Utrecht have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Utrecht are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 home games and Utrecht's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Sparta Rotterdam, 3 for Utrecht and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 May 2024, ended Sparta Rotterdam 1–3 Utrecht — a Utrecht win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sparta Rotterdam trading profile (last 45 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Utrecht trading profile (last 45 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sparta Rotterdam 64% and Utrecht 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 56% | Utrecht 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sparta Rotterdam surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Utrecht have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.05 xG and Utrecht 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.857 / defence 1.074 | Utrecht attack 1.102 / defence 0.749. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.237. Utrecht bring a tight defence (rating 0.749, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Sparta Rotterdam's projected output down. Data: built from Sparta Rotterdam's last 44 games and Utrecht's last 43.
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 27% | Draw 26% | Utrecht 47%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 3.68 | Draw 3.81 | Utrecht 2.15. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 home games and Utrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sparta Rotterdam 70% (last 10 home games) | Utrecht 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 11 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 3 November 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 27% | Draw 26% | Utrecht 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.05 / Utrecht 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.857 / def 1.074 | Utrecht attack 1.102 / def 0.749 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Utrecht xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht FAQs
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 4 Utrecht.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 11) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 27% chance of winning, Utrecht a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Utrecht will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sparta Rotterdam's attack rating (0.86) and Utrecht's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Utrecht's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sparta Rotterdam's last 44 games and Utrecht's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
27%
3.68
26%
3.81
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.52
1.46
Utrecht xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
6%
15.91
16%
6.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.46 for Utrecht, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sparta Rotterdam's recent record stands at 16W 12D 17L from 45 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 12L across 45 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sparta Rotterdam on 1.33 PPG, Utrecht on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sparta Rotterdam have managed 6W 8D 7L from their last 21 home games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Utrecht's away record stands at 8W 7D 6L across their last 21 away games, a 1.48 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.51 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Rotterdam have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam (Home) vs Utrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht Form FAQs
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 16W 12D 17L in their last 45 games (1.33 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 21W 12D 12L in their last 45 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Utrecht away?
Utrecht's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.24 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2023. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Nov 2024, when Utrecht won Sparta Rotterdam 1-4 Utrecht.
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting Utrecht specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sparta Rotterdam
2
Draws
4
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Utrecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sparta Rotterdam have won 4, Utrecht have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Utrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Sparta Rotterdam 3-3 Utrecht.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 62%, Utrecht 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 43% (Utrecht).
On the defensive side: Utrecht in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sparta Rotterdam and Utrecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 52% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sparta Rotterdam and Utrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 43% of Utrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Utrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 76% of Utrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Utrecht run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Sparta Rotterdam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat Sparta Rotterdam 1-4 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.05 xG and Utrecht 1.46 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Utrecht outscored their 1.46 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.86 / defence 1.07 against Utrecht attack 1.10 / defence 0.75, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 27% | Draw 26% | Utrecht 47%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 56%, Utrecht 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Utrecht's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.33 PPG, Utrecht 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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