Groningen 1-0 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam meet at Euroborg in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Groningen (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's home record at Euroborg: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Groningen are significantly better at Euroborg than their overall form suggests.
Sparta Rotterdam's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Sparta Rotterdam, who have claimed 3 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2023, ended 0–5 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Rotterdam have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Sparta Rotterdam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 48% versus Sparta Rotterdam 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 56% | Sparta Rotterdam 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.16 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.761 / defence 0.964 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.024 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.233. Groningen's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Groningen games / 45 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 35% | Draw 28% | Sparta Rotterdam 38%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Sparta Rotterdam 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Groningen 40% | Sparta Rotterdam 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 35% | Draw 28% | Sparta Rotterdam 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Groningen 1.16 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.761 / def 0.964 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.024 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.679 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Sparta Rotterdam xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Groningen 1 - 0 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 35% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (4 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 1 | Sparta Rotterdam 3W.
What form are Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Groningen (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Groningen's attack rating (0.76) and Sparta Rotterdam's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sparta Rotterdam's attack (1.02x) against Groningen's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
35%
2.89
28%
3.59
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.38
1.22
Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
10%
9.74
12%
8.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Groningen and 1.22 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Groningen's recent record stands at 23W 11D 12L from 46 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Rotterdam, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 18L across 46 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Groningen by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sparta Rotterdam heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 12W 6D 4L from 22 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record stands at 9W 3D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Groningen are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.39 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Rotterdam in 65%.
Defensively: Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 23W 11D 12L in their last 46 games (1.74 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 16W 12D 18L in their last 46 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Groningen's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.91 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Groningen or Sparta Rotterdam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Sparta Rotterdam in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Sparta Rotterdam have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Rotterdam won 0-5 on 28 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Groningen have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Groningen
1
Draws
6
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 1, Sparta Rotterdam have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 41%, Sparta Rotterdam 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Groningen) and 54% (Sparta Rotterdam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Groningen have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Groningen's recent matches and 64% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Groningen's matches and 54% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Groningen defy the odds to beat Sparta Rotterdam 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 12, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.16 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.22 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sparta Rotterdam landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.76 / defence 0.96 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.02 / defence 0.91, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 35% | Draw 28% | Sparta Rotterdam 38%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Groningen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 56%, Sparta Rotterdam 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Groningen arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.