Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Rotterdam (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sparta Rotterdam face Fortuna Sittard.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam host Fortuna Sittard at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sparta Rotterdam — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sparta Rotterdam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 4W 4D 2L at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Sittard stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Fortuna Sittard have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Fortuna Sittard have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Sparta Rotterdam have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Sparta Rotterdam: 4 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Fortuna Sittard, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 4–0 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sparta Rotterdam and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Fortuna Sittard in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 62% versus Fortuna Sittard 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 55% | Fortuna Sittard 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.57 xG and Fortuna Sittard 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.802 / defence 0.968 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.756 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.288. Data: 40 Sparta Rotterdam games / 40 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 48% | Draw 32% | Fortuna Sittard 19%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | Fortuna Sittard 5.26. Sparta Rotterdam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Rotterdam at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sparta Rotterdam 70% | Fortuna Sittard 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 48% | Draw 32% | Fortuna Sittard 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.57 / Fortuna Sittard 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.802 / def 0.968 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.756 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Fortuna Sittard xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 1 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 48% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (6 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 4W | Draws 1 | Fortuna Sittard 1W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sparta Rotterdam's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Fortuna Sittard's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Sittard's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
48%
2.06
32%
3.08
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.51
0.94
Fortuna Sittard xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
4%
25.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 0.94 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sparta Rotterdam come into this having played 40 games, going 15W 10D 15L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fortuna Sittard sit at 1.10 PPG from 40 outings (11W 11D 18L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sparta Rotterdam on 1.38 PPG, Fortuna Sittard on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sparta Rotterdam's home form reads 6W 7D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Fortuna Sittard have taken 0.70 points per game from 20 outings (3W 5D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortuna Sittard's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Rotterdam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.08 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Rotterdam have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Early Season
Fortuna Sittard
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 15W 10D 15L in their last 40 games (1.38 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 11W 11D 18L in their last 40 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Sparta Rotterdam's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.25 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2024, when Sparta Rotterdam won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting Fortuna Sittard specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sparta Rotterdam
4
Draws
1
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 5, Fortuna Sittard have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 2-2 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 60%, Fortuna Sittard 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 55% (Fortuna Sittard). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Fortuna Sittard?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 25% of Fortuna Sittard's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Sparta Rotterdam's matches and 55% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard finished level at 1-1 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.57 xG and Fortuna Sittard 0.94 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.80 / defence 0.97 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.76 / defence 1.18, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 48% | Draw 32% | Fortuna Sittard 19%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 55%, Fortuna Sittard 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.38 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.