PEC Zwolle 1-0 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAC³PARK Stadion plays host to PEC Zwolle versus Almere City FC in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 29 September 2024 at 11:15 UTC.
Current Form
PEC Zwolle's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at MAC³PARK Stadion, PEC Zwolle have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Almere City FC have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Almere City FC away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in PEC Zwolle's favour (0.80 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: PEC Zwolle 2W, Almere City FC 1W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 0–1 with Almere City FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
PEC Zwolle half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Almere City FC half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 65% versus Almere City FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 62% | Almere City FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.67 xG and Almere City FC 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 1.037 / defence 1.275 | Almere City FC attack 0.692 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.289. Data: 40 PEC Zwolle games / 40 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 46% | Draw 31% | Almere City FC 22%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Almere City FC 4.55. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 80% | Almere City FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 46% | Draw 31% | Almere City FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.67 / Almere City FC 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 1.037 / def 1.275 | Almere City FC attack 0.692 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Almere City FC xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 0 Almere City FC.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 46% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC?
Record (4 meetings): PEC Zwolle 2W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 1W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (1.04) and Almere City FC's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.69x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
46%
2.16
31%
3.21
22%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.81
1.14
Almere City FC xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
4.44
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
4%
23.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.14 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PEC Zwolle's recent record stands at 10W 10D 20L from 40 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 7W 15D 18L across 40 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 0.90 for Almere City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, PEC Zwolle have managed 6W 3D 10L from 19 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 4W 7D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 0.88 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
Almere City FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 10W 10D 20L in their last 40 games (1.00 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 7W 15D 18L in their last 40 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Almere City FC away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.11 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
PEC Zwolle
2
Draws
1
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 3, Almere City FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Almere City FC 2-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 63%, Almere City FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (PEC Zwolle) and 47% (Almere City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC in 32%; Almere City FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of PEC Zwolle's games and 47% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 47% of Almere City FC's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PEC Zwolle edge out Almere City FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Almere City FC 1-0 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.67 xG and Almere City FC 1.14 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Almere City FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 1.04 / defence 1.27 against Almere City FC attack 0.69 / defence 0.98, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 46% | Draw 31% | Almere City FC 22%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 62%, Almere City FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Almere City FC's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.00 PPG, Almere City FC 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.