Sparta Rotterdam 0-4 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sparta Rotterdam at 38%, yet in-form Feyenoord provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Feyenoord travel to Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel to take on Sparta Rotterdam. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 August 2025, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sparta Rotterdam stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sparta Rotterdam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sparta Rotterdam's home record at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Feyenoord have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Feyenoord are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Feyenoord, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Sparta Rotterdam.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 0–3 with Feyenoord winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Feyenoord have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Feyenoord in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sparta Rotterdam 61% and Feyenoord 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 47% | Feyenoord 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.52 xG and Feyenoord 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.995 / defence 0.977 | Feyenoord attack 1.180 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.757 / away 1.288. Data: 37 Sparta Rotterdam games / 36 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 38% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 36%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Feyenoord 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Feyenoord (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sparta Rotterdam 50% | Feyenoord 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Aug 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 38% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.52 / Feyenoord 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.995 / def 0.977 | Feyenoord attack 1.180 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.757 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Feyenoord xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 31 August 2025 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Sparta Rotterdam 0 - 4 Feyenoord.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 38% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord?
Record (7 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 0W | Draws 2 | Feyenoord 5W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Feyenoord (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sparta Rotterdam's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
38%
2.65
26%
3.83
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
3.01
1.49
Feyenoord xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
9%
11.69
8%
12.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.49 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Sparta Rotterdam have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 11W 11D 14L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Feyenoord's form line: 22W 8D 6L from 36 games, 2.06 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Feyenoord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sparta Rotterdam.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 1.18 PPG from 17 outings (5W 5D 7L).
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 9W 5D 3L from 17 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.22 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Rotterdam have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Feyenoord in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Early Season
Feyenoord
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 11W 11D 14L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 22W 8D 6L in their last 36 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.18 PPG; Feyenoord away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Sparta Rotterdam or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Rotterdam have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2022, when Feyenoord won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sparta Rotterdam
2
Draws
7
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 1, Feyenoord have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 0-1 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 65%, Feyenoord 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 53% (Feyenoord).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 65% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 53% of Feyenoord's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Sparta Rotterdam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Sparta Rotterdam 0-4 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 4, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.52 xG and Feyenoord 1.49 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Feyenoord outscored their 1.49 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Feyenoord attack 1.18 / defence 0.87, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 38% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 36%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Feyenoord win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 47%, Feyenoord 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Feyenoord's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.