Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sparta Rotterdam face AZ Alkmaar.

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Analysis & Preview

AZ Alkmaar travel to Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel to take on Sparta Rotterdam in Eredivisie (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 13:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

AZ Alkmaar — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

AZ Alkmaar's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sparta Rotterdam 0.90 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Sparta Rotterdam have won 1, AZ Alkmaar 3, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Mar 2024, ended Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 AZ Alkmaar — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Sparta Rotterdam in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

AZ Alkmaar in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 63% versus AZ Alkmaar 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 54% | AZ Alkmaar 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sparta Rotterdam surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while AZ Alkmaar have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.24 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.850 / defence 1.269 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.040 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.260. Sparta Rotterdam's defence rating of 1.269 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AZ Alkmaar's projected output up. Data: built from Sparta Rotterdam's last 46 games and AZ Alkmaar's last 46.

Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 29% | Draw 24% | AZ Alkmaar 47%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 3.50 | Draw 4.14 | AZ Alkmaar 2.11. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 home games and AZ Alkmaar's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sparta Rotterdam 70% (last 10 home games) | AZ Alkmaar 30% (last 10 away games).

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