PEC Zwolle 3-1 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours PSV Eindhoven (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PEC Zwolle face PSV Eindhoven.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PSV Eindhoven make the trip to MAC³PARK Stadion to face PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 January 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
PEC Zwolle (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PEC Zwolle have posted 4W 0D 6L at MAC³PARK Stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
PSV Eindhoven have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, PSV Eindhoven have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. PSV Eindhoven are 1.30 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle in recent Eredivisie fixtures (2.20 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to PSV Eindhoven, who have claimed 5 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 0–6 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PSV Eindhoven have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 5.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
PSV Eindhoven — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 60% versus PSV Eindhoven 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PEC Zwolle 56% | PSV Eindhoven 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.04 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.735 / defence 0.979 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.504 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.349. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.504 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 PEC Zwolle games / 52 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 19% | Draw 21% | PSV Eindhoven 59%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 5.26 | Draw 4.76 | PSV Eindhoven 1.69. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 50% | PSV Eindhoven 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jan 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 19% | Draw 21% | PSV Eindhoven 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.04 / PSV Eindhoven 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.735 / def 0.979 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.504 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.697 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.99
PSV Eindhoven xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 18 January 2025 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven?
PEC Zwolle 3 - 1 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 19% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 59% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both PEC Zwolle and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and PSV Eindhoven?
Record (5 meetings): PEC Zwolle 0W | Draws 0 | PSV Eindhoven 5W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and PSV Eindhoven in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
PEC Zwolle's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against PSV Eindhoven's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — PSV Eindhoven's attack (1.50x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.99.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (10.0%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
19%
5.21
21%
4.68
59%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
10.0%
Away win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
3.02
1.99
PSV Eindhoven xG
5.21
19%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
1.68
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
14%
7.29
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
3%
37.97
21%
4.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.99 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 13W 14D 25L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PSV Eindhoven's form line: 44W 5D 3L from 52 games, 2.63 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 1.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PEC Zwolle.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 1.15 PPG from 26 outings (9W 3D 14L).
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 20W 3D 3L from 26 away games — 2.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 3.31 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: PSV Eindhoven in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 13W 14D 25L in their last 52 games (1.02 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 44W 5D 3L in their last 52 (2.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.15 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.42 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or PSV Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, PSV Eindhoven in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: PSV Eindhoven have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PSV Eindhoven won 1-7 on 24 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PSV Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
7
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and PSV Eindhoven?
From 8 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 1, PSV Eindhoven have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 6-1 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 58%, PSV Eindhoven 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for PEC Zwolle and 73% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PSV Eindhoven in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play PSV Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of PEC Zwolle's games and 54% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 73% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do PEC Zwolle and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over PSV Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat PSV Eindhoven 3-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.04 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.99 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. PEC Zwolle beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PSV Eindhoven landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.73 / defence 0.98 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.50 / defence 0.83, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 19% | Draw 21% | PSV Eindhoven 59%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a PEC Zwolle win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 56%, PSV Eindhoven 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.63 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with PEC Zwolle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.