NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NEC Nijmegen host Sparta Rotterdam at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 December 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen's home record at Goffertstadion: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sparta Rotterdam stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
NEC Nijmegen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. NEC Nijmegen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, Sparta Rotterdam 1, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 2–0 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
NEC Nijmegen trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Sparta Rotterdam trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEC Nijmegen 58% and Sparta Rotterdam 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 68% | Sparta Rotterdam 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.60 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.068 / defence 0.936 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.807 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.304. Data: 49 NEC Nijmegen games / 49 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 52% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 23%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Sparta Rotterdam 4.35. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NEC Nijmegen at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 70% | Sparta Rotterdam 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Dec 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 52% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.60 / Sparta Rotterdam 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.068 / def 0.936 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.807 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Sparta Rotterdam xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
NEC Nijmegen 1 - 1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 52% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (6 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 1W | Draws 4 | Sparta Rotterdam 1W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates NEC Nijmegen's attack at 1.07x the league average against Sparta Rotterdam's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
52%
1.93
25%
4.01
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
2.59
0.98
Sparta Rotterdam xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
5%
21.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 0.98 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 19W 12D 19L from 50 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Rotterdam, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 22L across 50 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEC Nijmegen on 1.38 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 11W 5D 9L from 25 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record stands at 10W 3D 12L across 25 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.30 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Rotterdam in 62%.
Last 50 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 19W 12D 19L in their last 50 games (1.38 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 16W 12D 22L in their last 50 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.52 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
NEC Nijmegen
6
Draws
2
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 10 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 NEC Nijmegen.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 64%, Sparta Rotterdam 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for NEC Nijmegen and 52% for Sparta Rotterdam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sparta Rotterdam in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Sparta Rotterdam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 60% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 52% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 16, as NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.60 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.98 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.07 / defence 0.94 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.81 / defence 0.87, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 52% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 23%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 68%, Sparta Rotterdam 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.38 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.