Heracles 0-7 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Heracles face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Feyenoord travel to Asito Stadium to take on Heracles. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 October 2025, 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Heracles — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's home record at Asito Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Heracles are significantly better at Asito Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Feyenoord stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Feyenoord have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Feyenoord are 2.20 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Feyenoord, who boast 6 victories compared to 0 for Heracles.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2025, ended 1–4 with Feyenoord winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Feyenoord have won 6 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Heracles in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Feyenoord in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 62% versus Feyenoord 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 62% | Feyenoord 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.45 xG and Feyenoord 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.076 / defence 1.043 | Feyenoord attack 1.287 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.677 / away 1.488. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Heracles games / 42 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 28% | Draw 22% | Feyenoord 50%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 3.57 | Draw 4.55 | Feyenoord 2.00. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feyenoord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.45 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 80% | Feyenoord 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Asito Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Oct 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 28% | Draw 22% | Feyenoord 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG Heracles 1.45 / Feyenoord 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.076 / def 1.043 | Feyenoord attack 1.287 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.677 / away 1.488 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Feyenoord xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Feyenoord kick off?
Heracles vs Feyenoord kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 19 October 2025 at Asito Stadium.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Feyenoord?
Heracles 0 - 7 Feyenoord.
Where is Heracles vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadium.
What competition is Heracles vs Feyenoord part of?
Heracles vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 28% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 50% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Heracles and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Feyenoord?
Record (6 meetings): Heracles 0W | Draws 0 | Feyenoord 6W.
What form are Heracles and Feyenoord in?
Heracles (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Feyenoord (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Heracles's attack rating (1.08) and Feyenoord's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
28%
3.58
22%
4.62
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.45
2.00
Feyenoord xG
3.58
28%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
14%
7.38
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
4%
26.39
12%
8.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Heracles and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Heracles and 2.00 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heracles come into this having played 42 games, going 10W 11D 21L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.14 PPG from 42 outings (27W 9D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.16 PPG clear of Heracles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Heracles's home form reads 7W 7D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 1.95 points per game from 20 outings (11W 6D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.24 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Heracles have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 10W 11D 21L in their last 42 games (0.98 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 27W 9D 6L in their last 42 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.40 PPG; Feyenoord away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Heracles or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Feyenoord have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2025, when Feyenoord won 0-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Heracles
0
Draws
8
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Feyenoord?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 0, Feyenoord have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Feyenoord 4-2 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Heracles at 80%, Feyenoord at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Heracles and 55% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Heracles's games and 60% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Heracles's matches and 55% of Feyenoord's.
Do Heracles and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 0-7 hammering of Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Heracles 0-7 at Asito Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.45 xG and Feyenoord 2.00 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 0-7 for 7 actual goals. Heracles fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Feyenoord outscored their 2.00 projection by 5.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.08 / defence 1.04 against Feyenoord attack 1.29 / defence 0.80, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 28% | Draw 22% | Feyenoord 50%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 62%, Feyenoord 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Feyenoord's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.