Heracles 5-0 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
AZ Alkmaar travel to Erve Asito to take on Heracles in Eredivisie (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 18:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Heracles stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Heracles's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, AZ Alkmaar have recorded 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
AZ Alkmaar's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AZ Alkmaar are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Heracles's games and 70% of AZ Alkmaar's (from Heracles's last 10 home games and AZ Alkmaar's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Heracles have won 1, AZ Alkmaar 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2023, ended Heracles 1–1 AZ Alkmaar — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Heracles in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
AZ Alkmaar in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 54% versus AZ Alkmaar 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 70% | AZ Alkmaar 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.09 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.944 / defence 1.334 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.068 / defence 0.728. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.367. AZ Alkmaar bring a tight defence (rating 0.728, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Heracles's projected output down. Heracles's defence rating of 1.334 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AZ Alkmaar's projected output up. Data: built from Heracles's last 27 games and AZ Alkmaar's last 61.
Result probabilities: Heracles 20% | Draw 24% | AZ Alkmaar 56%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 5.08 | Draw 4.12 | AZ Alkmaar 1.78. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Heracles's last 10 home games and AZ Alkmaar's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Heracles 60% (last 10 home games) | AZ Alkmaar 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 28 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 18:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 20% | Draw 24% | AZ Alkmaar 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Heracles 1.09 / AZ Alkmaar 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.944 / def 1.334 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.068 / def 0.728 | league avg home 1.593 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.95
AZ Alkmaar xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar FAQs
What time does Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 18:45 UK time on Wednesday 3 April 2024 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Heracles 5 - 0 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 28) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 20% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Heracles and AZ Alkmaar will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Heracles's attack at 0.94x the league average against AZ Alkmaar's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Heracles's last 27 games and AZ Alkmaar's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
20%
5.08
24%
4.12
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.04
1.95
AZ Alkmaar xG
5.08
20%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
14%
7.02
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
3%
35.64
19%
5.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Heracles and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Heracles and 1.95 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heracles come into this having played 61 games, going 31W 8D 22L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, AZ Alkmaar sit at 1.95 PPG from 61 outings (35W 14D 12L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heracles on 1.66 PPG, AZ Alkmaar on 1.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Heracles's home form reads 19W 5D 6L across their last 30 home games, a 2.07 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.66 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, AZ Alkmaar have taken 1.93 points per game from their last 30 away games (17W 7D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 2.02 scored and 0.95 conceded. Heracles's scoring rate against AZ Alkmaar's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Heracles (Home) vs AZ Alkmaar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Heracles
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar Form FAQs
What form are Heracles and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 31W 8D 22L in their last 61 games (1.66 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 35W 14D 12L in their last 61 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
Heracles's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 2.07 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Heracles or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 15 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AZ Alkmaar have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Apr 2024, when Heracles won Heracles 5-0 AZ Alkmaar.
Heracles's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Heracles
1
Draws
4
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and AZ Alkmaar?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Heracles have won 3, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Heracles and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2026: AZ Alkmaar 4-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 57%, AZ Alkmaar 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Heracles and 60% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Heracles and AZ Alkmaar matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Heracles's games and 57% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Heracles and AZ Alkmaar matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Heracles's matches and 60% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Heracles and AZ Alkmaar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Heracles's recent matches and 80% of AZ Alkmaar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Heracles run riot with a 5-0 hammering of AZ Alkmaar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat AZ Alkmaar 5-0 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.09 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.95 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Heracles beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AZ Alkmaar landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.94 / defence 1.33 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.07 / defence 0.73, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 20% | Draw 24% | AZ Alkmaar 56%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Heracles win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 70%, AZ Alkmaar 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 1.66 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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