AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours AZ Alkmaar (75%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AZ Alkmaar face Vitesse.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 27 as AZ Alkmaar welcome Vitesse to AFAS Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 March 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AZ Alkmaar — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AFAS Stadion, AZ Alkmaar have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AFAS Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vitesse stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: AZ Alkmaar have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 7 past contests while Vitesse have managed just 1 wins.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 2–0 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AZ Alkmaar and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
AZ Alkmaar in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Vitesse in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 57% versus Vitesse 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 62% | Vitesse 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.64 xG and Vitesse 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.147 / defence 0.773 | Vitesse attack 0.814 / defence 1.430. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.355. Vitesse bring a strong defensive rating of 1.430 — this is suppressing AZ Alkmaar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. AZ Alkmaar's defence rating of 0.773 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 AZ Alkmaar games / 60 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 75% | Draw 16% | Vitesse 9%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.33 | Draw 6.25 | Vitesse 11.11. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (75%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: AZ Alkmaar 30% | Vitesse 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 75% | Draw 16% | Vitesse 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 54% | xG AZ Alkmaar 2.64 / Vitesse 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.147 / def 0.773 | Vitesse attack 0.814 / def 1.430 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.64
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Vitesse xG
54%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse?
AZ Alkmaar 2 - 0 Vitesse.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 75% chance of winning, Vitesse a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse?
Record (7 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 4W | Draws 2 | Vitesse 1W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Vitesse (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Vitesse's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.64. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus AZ Alkmaar's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.6%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
75%
1.34
16%
6.25
9%
10.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.64
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.49
0.85
Vitesse xG
1.34
75%
Home win
6.25
16%
Draw
10.99
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
7%
14.04
Win to Nil
32%
3.13
1%
154.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 2.64 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.85 for Vitesse, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AZ Alkmaar's recent record stands at 34W 14D 12L from 60 games, a 1.93 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 14W 15D 31L across 60 games — 0.95 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AZ Alkmaar by 0.98 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitesse heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AZ Alkmaar have managed 17W 7D 6L from 30 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitesse's away record stands at 8W 4D 18L across 30 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.10 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 34W 14D 12L in their last 60 games (1.93 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 14W 15D 31L in their last 60 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Vitesse away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.93 PPG; Vitesse away: 0.93 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or Vitesse been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Vitesse in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: AZ Alkmaar have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when AZ Alkmaar won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AZ Alkmaar's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
1
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse?
From 8 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 5, Vitesse have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 57%, Vitesse 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for AZ Alkmaar and 63% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Vitesse in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Vitesse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 50% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 63% of Vitesse's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Vitesse tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AZ Alkmaar cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Vitesse 2-0 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.64 xG and Vitesse 0.85 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Vitesse landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.15 / defence 0.77 against Vitesse attack 0.81 / defence 1.43, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 75% | Draw 16% | Vitesse 9%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 62%, Vitesse 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vitesse's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.