Groningen 2-3 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Groningen vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Euroborg plays host to Groningen versus Excelsior in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Groningen have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Groningen have posted 3W 4D 3L at Euroborg — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Excelsior's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Excelsior's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Groningen have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Excelsior in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Groningen 2W, Excelsior 1W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2025, ended 2–0 with Groningen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Groningen — key trading statistics (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Excelsior — key trading statistics (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 52% versus Excelsior 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 51% | Excelsior 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.66 xG and Excelsior 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.920 / defence 0.852 | Excelsior attack 0.883 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.728 / away 1.258. Data: 65 Groningen games / 31 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 51% | Draw 31% | Excelsior 18%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 1.96 | Draw 3.23 | Excelsior 5.56. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Groningen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 60% | Excelsior 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 51% | Draw 31% | Excelsior 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Groningen 1.66 / Excelsior 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.920 / def 0.852 | Excelsior attack 0.883 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.728 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Groningen (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Excelsior xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Excelsior kick off?
Groningen vs Excelsior kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Excelsior?
Groningen 2 - 3 Excelsior.
Where is Groningen vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Excelsior part of?
Groningen vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 51% chance of winning, Excelsior a 18% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Groningen and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Excelsior?
Record (3 meetings): Groningen 2W | Draws 0 | Excelsior 1W.
What form are Groningen and Excelsior in?
Groningen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Excelsior (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Groningen's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Excelsior's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — Excelsior's attack (0.88x) against Groningen's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 65/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
51%
1.97
31%
3.23
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.61
0.95
Excelsior xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
19%
5.27
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
3%
29.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.6 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Groningen and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Groningen and 0.95 for Excelsior, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Groningen come into this having played 65 games, going 22W 15D 28L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Excelsior sit at 1.51 PPG from 65 outings (28W 14D 23L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Groningen against 1.51 for Excelsior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Groningen's home form reads 13W 10D 8L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Excelsior have taken 1.26 points per game from 31 outings (10W 9D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Groningen are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.54 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Current Season
Excelsior
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 22W 15D 28L in their last 65 games (1.25 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 28W 14D 23L in their last 65 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Excelsior away?
Groningen's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.58 PPG; Excelsior away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Groningen won 3-0 on 25 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Groningen have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Groningen
0
Draws
2
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Excelsior?
From 4 meetings on record, Groningen have won 2, Excelsior have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Groningen 2-3 Excelsior.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 45%, Excelsior 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Groningen) and 68% (Excelsior). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Groningen have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Groningen's games and 71% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Groningen's matches and 68% of Excelsior's.
Do Groningen and Excelsior tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Excelsior defy the odds to beat Groningen 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Groningen 2-3 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.66 xG and Excelsior 0.95 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Excelsior outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.92 / defence 0.85 against Excelsior attack 0.88 / defence 1.04, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 51% | Draw 31% | Excelsior 18%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Excelsior win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 51%, Excelsior 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 1.25 PPG, Excelsior 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.