Dordrecht 2-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Willem II make the trip to M-Scores Stadion to face Dordrecht in Eredivisie, Relegation Round. The match kicks off on Wednesday 21 May 2025 at 17:45 UTC.
Form
Dordrecht (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at M-Scores Stadion, Dordrecht have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at M-Scores Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Dordrecht are significantly better at M-Scores Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Willem II's overall Eredivisie record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Willem II have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Dordrecht. A 1.50 PPG lead over Willem II (1.70 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Dordrecht 0W, Willem II 2W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 62% and Willem II 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 55% | Willem II 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.53 xG and Willem II 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Willem II attack 0.648 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.304. Data: 0 Dordrecht games / 34 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 48% | Draw 30% | Willem II 22%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Willem II 4.55. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Willem II lead the H2H ledger, but Dordrecht carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Dordrecht 30% | Willem II 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 May 2025, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 48% | Draw 30% | Willem II 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Dordrecht 1.53 / Willem II 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Willem II attack 0.648 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Willem II xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Willem II kick off?
Dordrecht vs Willem II kicked off at 17:45 on Wednesday 21 May 2025 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Willem II?
Dordrecht 2 - 1 Willem II.
Where is Dordrecht vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Willem II part of?
Dordrecht vs Willem II is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 48% chance of winning, Willem II a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Dordrecht and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Willem II?
Record (4 meetings): Dordrecht 0W | Draws 2 | Willem II 2W.
What form are Dordrecht and Willem II in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Willem II (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (0.85) and Willem II's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.65x) against Dordrecht's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
48%
2.09
30%
3.29
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.50
0.97
Willem II xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
5%
21.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Dordrecht and 0.97 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dordrecht come into this having played 42 games, going 19W 17D 6L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 1.00 PPG from 42 outings (10W 12D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Dordrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Willem II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Dordrecht's home form reads 12W 7D 2L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 0.95 points per game from 21 outings (4W 8D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.17 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Early Season
Willem II
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Willem II in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 19W 17D 6L in their last 42 games (1.76 PPG), while Willem II have gone 10W 12D 20L in their last 42 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Willem II away?
Dordrecht's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 2.05 PPG; Willem II away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Willem II in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Willem II have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Dordrecht
2
Draws
5
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Willem II?
From 8 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 1, Willem II have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Dordrecht 1-2 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 52%, Willem II 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Dordrecht) and 24% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Willem II in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 57% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Dordrecht's recent games and 24% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dordrecht and Willem II tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Willem II in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dordrecht edge out Willem II 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Willem II 2-1 at M-Scores Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.53 xG and Willem II 0.97 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Willem II attack 0.65 / defence 1.11, drawn from 0/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 48% | Draw 30% | Willem II 22%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 55%, Willem II 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Willem II's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.