AZ Alkmaar 1-2 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 64% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as AZ Alkmaar face Willem II.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AFAS Stadion plays host to AZ Alkmaar versus Willem II in Eredivisie (matchday 12). Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 15:45 UK time.
Current Form
AZ Alkmaar's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AZ Alkmaar's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — AZ Alkmaar are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Willem II have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Willem II's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from AZ Alkmaar's last 10 home games and Willem II's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 70% of Willem II's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for AZ Alkmaar, 0 for Willem II and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Mar 2022, ended AZ Alkmaar 2–2 Willem II — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
AZ Alkmaar half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 70%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 51% versus Willem II 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 67% | Willem II 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: AZ Alkmaar surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Willem II have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 70% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.15 xG and Willem II 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.394 / defence 1.032 | Willem II attack 0.779 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.254. AZ Alkmaar carry an above-average attack rating of 1.394 — their 2.15 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Willem II's attack rating of 0.779 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from AZ Alkmaar's last 45 games and Willem II's last 11.
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 64% | Draw 20% | Willem II 17%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.57 | Draw 5.05 | Willem II 6.00. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (64%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (AZ Alkmaar's last 10 home games and Willem II's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AZ Alkmaar 70% (last 10 home games) | Willem II 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 12 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 15:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 64% | Draw 20% | Willem II 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG AZ Alkmaar 2.15 / Willem II 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.394 / def 1.032 | Willem II attack 0.779 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Willem II xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II FAQs
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II kicked off at 15:45 UK time on Sunday 10 November 2024 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
AZ Alkmaar 1 - 2 Willem II.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 12) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 64% chance of winning, Willem II a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Willem II will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.78x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from AZ Alkmaar's last 45 games and Willem II's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
64%
1.57
20%
5.05
17%
6.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.16
1.01
Willem II xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
6.00
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
12%
8.60
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
2%
51.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.01 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AZ Alkmaar's recent record stands at 24W 10D 11L from 45 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 25W 11D 9L across 45 games — 1.91 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for AZ Alkmaar against 1.91 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AZ Alkmaar have managed 13W 4D 5L from their last 22 home games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 10W 7D 5L across their last 22 away games, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.87 scored and 0.91 conceded. AZ Alkmaar's scoring rate against Willem II's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Willem II
Blended
AZ Alkmaar (Home) vs Willem II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II Form FAQs
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Willem II in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 24W 10D 11L in their last 45 games (1.82 PPG), while Willem II have gone 25W 11D 9L in their last 45 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Willem II away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.95 PPG; Willem II away: 1.68 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Willem II in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between AZ Alkmaar and Willem II, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won AZ Alkmaar 4-1 Willem II on 18 Dec 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
1
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Willem II?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, AZ Alkmaar have won 2, Willem II have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Willem II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Willem II?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 54%, Willem II 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (AZ Alkmaar) and 27% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AZ Alkmaar and Willem II matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 54% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AZ Alkmaar and Willem II matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of AZ Alkmaar's recent games and 27% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Willem II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 77% of Willem II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Willem II defy the odds to beat AZ Alkmaar 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat AZ Alkmaar 1-2 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.15 xG and Willem II 1.01 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Willem II outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.39 / defence 1.03 against Willem II attack 0.78 / defence 0.93, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 64% | Draw 20% | Willem II 17%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Willem II win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 67%, Willem II 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Willem II's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.82 PPG, Willem II 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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