Almere City FC 2-2 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PEC Zwolle make the trip to Yanmar Stadion to face Almere City FC in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Almere City FC have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yanmar Stadion, Almere City FC have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
PEC Zwolle (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.20 for PEC Zwolle. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Almere City FC lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with PEC Zwolle winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Almere City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 44% versus PEC Zwolle 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 48% | PEC Zwolle 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.24 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.701 / defence 1.282 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.939 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.351. Almere City FC's attack strength of 0.701 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Almere City FC games / 61 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 29% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 46%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | PEC Zwolle 2.17. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PEC Zwolle at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Almere City FC 40% | PEC Zwolle 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 29% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Almere City FC 1.24 / PEC Zwolle 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.701 / def 1.282 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.939 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.63
PEC Zwolle xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle?
Almere City FC 2 - 2 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 29% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Almere City FC and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and PEC Zwolle?
Record (5 meetings): Almere City FC 1W | Draws 1 | PEC Zwolle 3W.
What form are Almere City FC and PEC Zwolle in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.70) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (0.94x) against Almere City FC's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
29%
3.44
25%
4.04
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.87
1.63
PEC Zwolle xG
3.44
29%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
6%
17.48
13%
7.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.2 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.63 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 11W 19D 31L from 61 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 16W 17D 28L across 61 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.07 for PEC Zwolle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 5W 9D 16L from 30 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 5W 12D 13L across 30 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Almere City FC are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.26 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle in 61%.
Last 61 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 11W 19D 31L in their last 61 games (0.85 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 16W 17D 28L in their last 61 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or PEC Zwolle away?
PEC Zwolle's away record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 0.80 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
2
Draws
3
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and PEC Zwolle?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 1, PEC Zwolle have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Almere City FC 2-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 50%, PEC Zwolle 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Almere City FC) and 53% (PEC Zwolle).
On the defensive side: Almere City FC have failed to score in 37% of games; PEC Zwolle in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Almere City FC's games and 63% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Almere City FC's recent games and 53% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almere City FC and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC and PEC Zwolle share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC and PEC Zwolle finished level at 2-2 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.24 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.63 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.70 / defence 1.28 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.94 / defence 1.12, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 29% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 46%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 48%, PEC Zwolle 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 0.85 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.