Willem II 1-2 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Willem II host Roda at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Willem II have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Willem II have posted 4W 0D 6L at Koning Willem II Stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Koning Willem II Stadion this season.
Roda — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Willem II at 1.70 PPG versus Roda's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Willem II register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Roda in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Willem II have won 2, Roda 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2024, ended 2–3 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Willem II in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Roda in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 60% versus Roda 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 49% | Roda 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.04 xG and Roda 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.660 / defence 0.852 | Roda attack 1.078 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.733 / away 1.392. Willem II's attack strength of 0.660 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Willem II games / 47 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 30% | Draw 28% | Roda 42%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Roda 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Willem II 60% | Roda 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 3 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 30% | Draw 28% | Roda 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Willem II 1.04 / Roda 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.660 / def 0.852 | Roda attack 1.078 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.733 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Roda (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Roda xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Roda kick off?
Willem II vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 October 2025 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Roda?
Willem II 1 - 2 Roda.
Where is Willem II vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Roda part of?
Willem II vs Roda is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 30% chance of winning, Roda a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Willem II and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Roda?
Record (4 meetings): Willem II 2W | Draws 1 | Roda 1W.
What form are Willem II and Roda in?
Willem II (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Roda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Willem II's attack rating (0.66) and Roda's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
30%
3.30
28%
3.58
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.32
1.28
Roda xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
8%
11.87
15%
6.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Willem II and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Willem II and 1.28 for Roda, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Willem II's recent record stands at 12W 11D 24L from 47 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 17W 13D 17L across 47 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Willem II on 1.00 PPG, Roda on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 7W 3D 13L from 23 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 7W 5D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.32 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Roda in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 12W 11D 24L in their last 47 games (1.00 PPG), while Roda have gone 17W 13D 17L in their last 47 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.04 PPG; Roda away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Willem II's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Willem II
1
Draws
2
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Roda?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 3, Roda have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Roda 0-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Roda?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 56%, Roda 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Willem II and 65% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Willem II's games and 70% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Willem II's matches and 65% of Roda's.
Do Willem II and Roda tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Roda in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Roda edge out Willem II 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Willem II 1-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.04 xG and Roda 1.28 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.66 / defence 0.85 against Roda attack 1.08 / defence 0.91, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 30% | Draw 28% | Roda 42%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 49%, Roda 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.00 PPG, Roda 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.