Willem II 3-0 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Willem II host Emmen at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 1 December 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Willem II — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Koning Willem II Stadion this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Emmen have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.70 PPG (Willem II) versus 2.30 (Emmen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Willem II register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Emmen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Willem II trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Emmen trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 61% versus Emmen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 63% | Emmen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.67 xG and Emmen 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.239 / defence 0.982 | Emmen attack 0.997 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.393. Data: 54 Willem II games / 16 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 44% | Draw 25% | Emmen 31%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Emmen 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 70% | Emmen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 44% | Draw 25% | Emmen 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Willem II 1.67 / Emmen 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 1.239 / def 0.982 | Emmen attack 0.997 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Willem II (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Emmen xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Emmen kick off?
Willem II vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 December 2023 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Emmen?
Willem II 3 - 0 Emmen.
Where is Willem II vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Emmen part of?
Willem II vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 44% chance of winning, Emmen a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Willem II and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Emmen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Willem II and Emmen in?
Willem II (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Emmen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Willem II's attack rating (1.24) and Emmen's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
44%
2.27
25%
3.99
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.03
1.36
Emmen xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
6%
17.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.0 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Willem II and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Willem II and 1.36 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Willem II's recent record stands at 30W 13D 11L from 54 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen, meanwhile, have gone 17W 15D 22L across 54 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Willem II by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Emmen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 20W 2D 5L from 27 games — 2.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Emmen's away record stands at 8W 5D 14L across 27 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Willem II are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.20 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Emmen in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 30W 13D 11L in their last 54 games (1.91 PPG), while Emmen have gone 17W 15D 22L in their last 54 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Emmen away?
Willem II's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.30 PPG; Emmen away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Willem II or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Emmen in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Willem II and Emmen runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2023, when Willem II won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Willem II's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Willem II
1
Draws
1
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Emmen?
From 4 meetings on record, Willem II have won 2, Emmen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Emmen 0-3 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Emmen?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 63%, Emmen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Willem II and 63% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Willem II's games and 67% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Willem II's matches and 63% of Emmen's.
Do Willem II and Emmen tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Emmen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Willem II run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Emmen 3-0 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.67 xG and Emmen 1.36 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Willem II beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Emmen landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 1.24 / defence 0.98 against Emmen attack 1.00 / defence 0.87, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 44% | Draw 25% | Emmen 31%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 63%, Emmen 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Emmen's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.