Den Bosch 3-3 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 42%, yet in-form Jong Ajax provide a compelling counter-argument — this Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion De Vliert plays host to Den Bosch versus Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Friday 1 December 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Den Bosch have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadion De Vliert this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong Ajax's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Ajax away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Jong Ajax arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Jong Ajax in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Den Bosch 1W, Jong Ajax 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2023, ended 4–2 with Den Bosch winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Den Bosch half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Jong Ajax half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 56% and Jong Ajax 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Den Bosch 67% | Jong Ajax 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.81 xG and Jong Ajax 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.799 / defence 1.314 | Jong Ajax attack 0.894 / defence 1.465. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.393. Den Bosch's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jong Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.465 — this is suppressing Den Bosch's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Den Bosch games / 54 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 42% | Draw 23% | Jong Ajax 35%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | Jong Ajax 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jong Ajax (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.45 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 70% | Jong Ajax 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 1 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 42% | Draw 23% | Jong Ajax 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Den Bosch 1.81 / Jong Ajax 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.799 / def 1.314 | Jong Ajax attack 0.894 / def 1.465 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Jong Ajax xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 December 2023 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Den Bosch 3 - 3 Jong Ajax.
Where is Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax part of?
Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 42% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Den Bosch and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong Ajax?
Record (4 meetings): Den Bosch 1W | Draws 1 | Jong Ajax 2W.
What form are Den Bosch and Jong Ajax in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Jong Ajax (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.80x the league average against Jong Ajax's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Ajax's attack (0.89x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
42%
2.38
23%
4.27
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.45
1.64
Jong Ajax xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
8%
12.25
6%
17.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.64 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 13W 6D 35L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Ajax's form line: 16W 14D 24L from 54 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.15 for Jong Ajax. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.15 PPG from 27 outings (9W 4D 14L).
On the road, Jong Ajax have gone 5W 6D 16L from 27 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Den Bosch are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.72 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax in 72%.
Last 54 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 13W 6D 35L in their last 54 games (0.83 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 16W 14D 24L in their last 54 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Jong Ajax away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.15 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Den Bosch
2
Draws
3
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 5, Jong Ajax have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Jong Ajax 3-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Jong Ajax?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Den Bosch, 74% for Jong Ajax — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Den Bosch and 67% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Den Bosch's games and 74% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Den Bosch's matches and 67% of Jong Ajax's.
Do Den Bosch and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch and Jong Ajax share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch and Jong Ajax finished level at 3-3 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.81 xG and Jong Ajax 1.64 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong Ajax outscored their 1.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.80 / defence 1.31 against Jong Ajax attack 0.89 / defence 1.47, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 42% | Draw 23% | Jong Ajax 35%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 67%, Jong Ajax 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 0.83 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.