Vitesse 3-1 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitesse at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Den Bosch travel to GelreDome to take on Vitesse. The game is scheduled for Friday 9 May 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Vitesse have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Vitesse's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at GelreDome this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Vitesse are significantly better at GelreDome than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Den Bosch have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vitesse 1.30 PPG, Den Bosch 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Vitesse, 1 for Den Bosch and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2024, ended 2–4 with Den Bosch winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Vitesse trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Den Bosch trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 55% versus Den Bosch 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 62% | Den Bosch 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.38 xG and Den Bosch 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.846 / defence 1.091 | Den Bosch attack 0.856 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.250. Data: 37 Vitesse games / 75 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 41% | Draw 27% | Den Bosch 31%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Den Bosch 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vitesse as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitesse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Vitesse 40% | Den Bosch 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Friday 9 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 41% | Draw 27% | Den Bosch 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Vitesse 1.38 / Den Bosch 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.846 / def 1.091 | Den Bosch attack 0.856 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Den Bosch xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Den Bosch kick off?
Vitesse vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 9 May 2025 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Den Bosch?
Vitesse 3 - 1 Den Bosch.
Where is Vitesse vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Den Bosch part of?
Vitesse vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 41% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Vitesse and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Den Bosch?
Record (1 meetings): Vitesse 0W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 1W.
What form are Vitesse and Den Bosch in?
Vitesse (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vitesse's attack at 0.85x the league average against Den Bosch's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
41%
2.42
27%
3.66
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.55
1.17
Den Bosch xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
13%
7.78
8%
12.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.17 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vitesse's recent record stands at 16W 17D 38L from 71 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-D in the last five.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 22W 19D 30L across 71 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-L-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vitesse on 0.92 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Vitesse have managed 8W 11D 16L from 35 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 11W 7D 17L across 35 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Vitesse are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.23 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Current Season
Den Bosch
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 16W 17D 38L in their last 71 games (0.92 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 22W 19D 30L in their last 71 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Den Bosch away?
Den Bosch's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.00 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Vitesse or Den Bosch been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitesse have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Den Bosch in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vitesse and Den Bosch runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2026, when Vitesse won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitesse's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Vitesse
0
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Den Bosch?
From 5 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 2, Den Bosch have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Den Bosch 1-4 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Den Bosch?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 57%, Den Bosch 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Vitesse) and 54% (Den Bosch).
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 31%; Vitesse have failed to score in 29% of games; Den Bosch in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Vitesse's recent matches and 37% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitesse vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Vitesse's recent games and 54% of Den Bosch's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitesse and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vitesse cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat Den Bosch 3-1 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.38 xG and Den Bosch 1.17 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Vitesse beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.85 / defence 1.09 against Den Bosch attack 0.86 / defence 0.96, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 41% | Draw 27% | Den Bosch 31%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 62%, Den Bosch 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitesse 0.92 PPG, Den Bosch 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitesse win broke the near-deadlock. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.51 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.